Dampak perubahan harga internasional komoditas ekspor utama terhadap perekonomian Indonesia

Abstract

The change of international prices have caused world’s economy fluctuating. The Gulf war crisis, in 2005, had an impact on oil prices increased. The declining of global demand, as an impact of global economy crisis recently (2008), has impacts on Indonesia economy. This research analyses the impact of international price change of major Indonesia’s exported commodities on Indonesia economy based on modified Indonesia SAM 2005 as a data framework and SAM-Based CGE model as a tool. Three simulations were made by shocking international price of the main exported commodities from its base-line price to examine the impacts by comparing base-line and counterfactual figures. Simulation I is made by giving a shock on international prices (pwe) of ten main exported commodities based on quarter 1(q1)/2008 up to quarter2 (q2)/2009 trend prices simultaneously. Simulation II is made by decreasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially. Simulation III is made by increasing international prices of ten main exported commodities by 25% partially.