Model dinamika perubahan hutan dan lahan dan skenario perdagangan karbon di Provinsi Jambi

Abstract

The rate of deforestation and forest degradation in the sector of LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) continues to increase along with the increase in land and forest products. In 2009, the release of forest area in Jambi province reached 77,216 hectares, land use 344,305 hectares, and forest area exchange 80,861 hectares. The importance of non-forestry sector development has resulted in the decrease in forested areas (deforestation) and the cover of forested areas (forest degradation). The rate of deforestation in Jambi reached 165,665 hectares, in which 39.75% occurred in West Tanjung Jabung Regency. The use of forest area for non-forestry sector development is set out in the national development policy. The policy changes bring about the changes in the interaction of forest stakeholders to the forest areas. To reduce the rates of deforestation and forest degradation, the government has used REDD + scheme. One scenario in REDD+ scheme is with a moratorium on the use of forest areas. Projected deforestation and forest degradation can be done through dynamic system when a moratorium on forest area utilization is conducted on the intensity of 30%, 50% and 70% out of the forest area use permit in BAU. The implementation of a moratorium can decrease deforestation and degradation about 9% -43%. Implementation of a moratorium of forest area use permit in REDD+ scheme does not provide a very large income. The income of REDD + is only about 0.76 to 1.35 billion USD in every 5-year contract, much lower compared to BAU income of Jambi which reaches USD 678,912 per year and it may threaten 1,290,854 employment opportunities for people.