Defisit anggaran, utang pemerintah dan keberlanjutan fiscal: aplikasi model vector error correction

Abstract

Performances of budget deficit and government debt that getting worse since the economy crisis in 1998 up to present has made fiscal condition of Indonesia become unsu stainable. Its indicators are namely, the government incapable to repay debt principal from their own financial sources hence should get it from new loan withdrawal. The government inept adjust fiscal to control deficit. When facing deficit, the government tend to let the deficit grow by itself and seek new loans to finance it. This tendency has caused deficit become too dependent to debt. Therefore, to rise above the deficit problems at the same time the government should also to overcome the debt problems, and vice versa The research objectives are: (1) identification of budget deficit and government debt performances, (2) detection of the government tendency when dealing with deficit, (3) knowing the impact of the government fiscal sustainability policy to the macroeconomy, and (4) formulation of policy implication.

Buruknya kinerja deficit anggaran dan utang perintah sejak krisis ekonomi telah membuat kondisi fiscal menjadi unsustainab;e. Indikatornya, pemerintah tidak mampu membayar angsuran pokok utang dari sumber dananya sendiri melainkan dari penarikan pinjaman baru. Pemerintah cenderung membiarkan saja defisit terjadi dan membiayainya melalui pinjaman baru. Hal ini membuat ketergantungan deficit utang menjadi sangat tinggi. Sehingga untuk mengatasinya, pada saat yang sama harus mengatasi utang dan sebaliknya. Seandainya tingkat ketergantungan kedua variable tersebut tidak setinggi kenyataannya, upaya mengatasi kedua masalah tersebut akan jauh lebih mudah.