Arima Model For Monthly Temperature And Rainfall In Bogor

Abstract

average condititon among items from many components of climate system. There arc many factors determine the differences of the climate among one place to another place in the world. The climate•s components very often used to define the climate in some place arc the temperature and the minfal!. The damages caused by climate (such as: drought, flood, global wanning) actually can be avoided if we have known climate prediction. such as periodicity. rainfall prediction and temperature prediction. Bogor that is known as "'rain city" is very interesting to investigate like what the pattern of it '5 rainfall and temperature. The temperature in Bogor have periodicity of 12 monthly and the rainfall have periodicity of 36 monUlly (3 yearly). The model for the montilly temperature in Bogar is as [ollOlr: X, = 0,8254X,.! + X,." - 0.8254X'.13 +c, - 0.4186c'.1 - 0.9475c,." + 0.3966c'.13. The model for the lllontIlly rainfall in Bogar is as follow: X, = 0.8455X'~6+0.1525X'.72"'" +0.1318£'.1 -0.8567£,.",+0.1129£'-37. From these both satisfactory models we established. we can explore and analyse lImy strong the PHst temperature correlates to the present temperature. And from these model we can also do forecasting. Key words: Stationarity. Ergodicity. Autocorrelation Function. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) ModeL Q Box-Pierce Test. Forecasting.