Kinerja Ekspor Uncoated Paper and Paperboard Indonesia Periode 2010-2023

Abstract

Kertas sebagai salah satu komoditas unggulan dalam industri hasil hutan telah memegang peranan penting bagi transaksi internasional Indonesia. Nilai ekspor kertas dan karton Indonesia mencapai titik tertinggi pada tahun 2022 sebesar USD 4,80 milyar. Kertas Harmonized System (HS) 480256 menjadi produk dengan proporsi terbesar yang diekspor Indonesia ke Jepang dengan presentase sebesar 56,06%. Fluktuasi harga pada perdagangan internasional berpotensi memengaruhi struktur pasar dan permintaan ekspor kertas HS 480256 Indonesia di pasar Jepang. Hingga saat ini studi terkait elastisitas harga pada permintaan ekspor kertas di Indonesia sangat terbatas. Oleh karena itu, studi ini mengisi kesenjangan tersebut dengan menerapkan model Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Model ini menekankan pada pemahaman secara komprehensif terkait dinamika konsumsi dan respon permintaan Jepang terhadap perubahan harga kertas HS 480256 Indonesia. Disamping itu, penelitian ini diperkuat dengan analisis keunggulan komperatif menggunakan indeks Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). Hasil analisis indeks RSCA menunjukkan bahwa kertas HS 480256 Indonesia memiliki daya saing yang kuat dengan tren stabil. Hasil estimasi sistem permintaan QUAIDS menunjukkan bahwa kertas HS 480256 Indonesia bersifat elastis pada uncompensated own-price elasticity. Hal ini menjelaskan keunggulan kompetitif kertas HS 480256 Indonesia di pasar Jepang terjadi berdasarkan harga ekspor yang lebih rendah. Hasil estimasi compensated cross-price elasticity antara kertas HS 480256 Indonesia dengan China bersifat saling subsitusi, mengindikasikan adanya persaingan harga antara Indonesia dan China di pasar Jepang. Sedangkan Indonesia dengan Amerika Serikat memiliki hubungan komplementer antara satu sama lain, yang menggambarkan keunggulan kompetitif kertas HS 480256 didorong oleh diferensiasi dan segmentasi yang berbeda antara Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat di pasar Jepang. Hasil estimasi QUAIDS untuk nilai expenditure elasticity menunjukkan kertas HS 480256 tergolong barang normal di pasar Jepang. Kondisi ini berimplikasi pada permintaan kertas HS 480256 Indonesia yang akan meningkat seiring dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang. Indonesia berpotensi untuk terus mengisi kebutuhan kertas HS 480256 Jepang dengan keunggulan berupa ketersediaan bahan baku berkelanjutan dan kerjasama bilateral antara Indonesia dan Jepang. Industri kertas Indonesia disarankan untuk dapat mempertahankan struktur pasar dan daya saing kertas HS 480256 Indonesia di pasar Jepang. Menjaga stabilitas harga ekspor kertas dan mematuhi perjanjian perdagangan dengan negara tujuan ekspor diperlukan untuk mempertahankan daya saing kertas HS 480256 Indonesia. Adaptasi dengan lingkungan perdagangan internasional juga penting dilakukan untuk mendorong perkembangan industri kehutanan melalui peningkatan kapasitas dan inovasi teknologi terbaru bagi produk kertas Indonesia.

Paper, as one of the leading commodities in the forest products industry, has played an important role in Indonesia's international trade. The value of Indonesia's paper and paperboard exports reached a peak in 2022 at 4.80 billion USD. Harmonized System (HS) 480256 paper was the product with the largest proportion exported by Indonesia to Japan, with a percentage of 56.06%. Price fluctuations in international trade have the potential to affect the market structure and demand for Indonesian HS 480256 paper exports in the Japanese market. Currently, studies on price elasticity of paper export demand in Indonesia are very limited. Therefore, this study fills this gap using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. This model emphasizes a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of consumption and the response of Japanese demand towards changes in the price of Indonesian HS 480256 paper. In addition, this study is strengthened by an analysis of comparative advantage using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index. The results of the RSCA index analysis show that Indonesian HS 480256 paper has strong competitiveness with a stable trend. The results of the QUAIDS demand system estimation show that Indonesian HS 480256 paper is elastic in terms of uncompensated own-price elasticity. This explains the competitive advantage of Indonesian HS 480256 paper in the Japanese market based on lower export prices. The estimated compensated cross-price elasticity between Indonesian HS 480256 paper and Chinese HS 480256 paper is mutually substitutable, indicating price competition between Indonesia and China in the Japanese market. Meanwhile, Indonesia and the United States have a complementary relationship with each other, which illustrates that the competitive advantage of HS 480256 paper is driven by different differentiation and segmentation between Indonesia and the United States in the Japanese market. The QUAIDS estimation results for expenditure elasticity show that HS 480256 paper is classified as a normal good in the Japanese market. This condition implies that the demand for Indonesian HS 480256 paper will increase in line with Japan's economic growth. Indonesia has the potential to continuously fulfill Japan's demand for HS 480256 paper with its advantages in the form of sustainable raw material availability and bilateral cooperation between Indonesia and Japan. The Indonesian paper industry is suggested to maintain the market structure and competitiveness of Indonesian HS 480256 paper in the Japanese market. Maintaining the stability of paper export prices and complying trade agreements with export destination countries are necessary to ensure the competitiveness of Indonesian HS 480256 paper. It is also important for the industry to adapt with the international trade environment to encourage the development of the forestry industry through capacity building and the utilization of the latest technological innovations for Indonesian paper products