Karakteristik Kasus Pneumonia Balita berdasarkan Kejadian Hujan di Kota Bogor

Abstract

Penularan pneumonia balita salah satunya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi iklim, termasuk hujan. Kejadian hujan akan mempengaruhi sistem pernapasan dengan menurunkan resistensi tubuh balita terhadap infeksi. Kota Bogor memiliki curah dan hari hujan tinggi sehingga berpotensi menjadi tempat penyebaran mikroorganisme penyebab pneumonia. Penelitian ini bertujuan mendapatkan gambaran karakteristik kasus pneumonia balita berdasarkan kejadian hujan yang diidentifikasi dari curah hujan, klasifikasi hujan harian, dry spell dan wet spell di Kota Bogor. Hasil analisis korelasi menunjukkan hanya hari tidak hujan, hari hujan, hari hujan ringan, dry spell dan wet spell memiliki pengaruh nyata dengan korelasi lemah terhadap kasus pneumonia balita. Di Kota Bogor, periode dry spell yang panjang hingga 7 hari per minggu diikuti penurunan kasus pneumonia balita, sedangkan periode wet spell yang panjang hingga 7 hari per minggu diikuti peningkatan kasus pneumonia balita 1 hingga 2 minggu kemudian. Koefisien korelasi tertinggi terdapat saat jeda waktu 1 minggu yang disebabkan masa inkubasi patogen dan penundaan untuk konsultasi medis. Berdasarkan analisis regresi, hari hujan hanya menjelaskan 13% variasi kasus pneumonia balita, sedangkan dry spell dan wet spell hanya menjelaskan 14%. Analisis 3D surface plot menunjukkan peningkatan kasus pneumonia balita seiring dengan meningkatnya frekuensi hari hujan dan wet spell, baik tanpa jeda maupun jeda 1 hingga 2 minggu.

The transmission of pneumonia among children under-five is influenced by climatic conditions, including rain. Rain events will affect the respiratory system by reducing under-five resistance to infection. Bogor City has high rainfall and rainy days, potentially spreading microorganisms that cause pneumonia. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of under-five pneumonia cases based on rain events identified from rainfall, daily rain classification, dry spell and wet spell in Bogor City. The results of the correlation analysis showed only non-rainy days, rainy days, light rainy days, dry spells and wet spells had a significant influence a weak correlation on under-five pneumonia cases. In Bogor City, long dry spell periods of up to 7 days per week were followed by a decrease in under-five pneumonia cases, while long wet spell of up to 7 days per week were followed by an increase in under-five pneumonia cases 1 to 2 weeks later. The highest correlation coefficient was found during the 1-week lag due to the incubation period of pathogens and delays for medical consultation. Based on regression analysis, rainy days only explained 13% of the variation in under-five pneumonia cases, while dry and wet spells only explained 14%. 3D surface plot analysis showed an increase in under-five pneumonia cases as the frequency of rainy days and wet spells increased, both without a lag and with a lag of 1 to 2 weeks.