Efisiensi dan Determinan Inefisiensi Ekspor Lima Komoditas Pertanian Terbesar Indonesia ke Beberapa Negara ASEAN

Abstract

Perdagangan internasional memainkan peranan penting dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi ASEAN. Pembentukan Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA) merupakan salah satu upaya untuk peningkatan arus perdagangan internasional. Sektor pertanian menjadi sektor penting sebagai penyumbang surplus terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan mampu bertahan di tengah ketidakpastian global. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis nilai efisiensi ekspor sebelum dan sesudah kesepakatan MEA serta determinan ekspor dan inefisiensi ekspor lima komoditas pertanian terbesar Indonesia ke beberapa negara ASEAN periode 2003-2022. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa nilai rata-rata efisiensi ekspor lima komoditas pertanian terbesar Indonesia setelah kesepakatan MEA sebesar 45,25 persen yakni turun 12,34 persen dari sebelum kesepakatan MEA. Variabel GDP riil Indonesia dan jarak ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor pertanian Indonesia, sedangkan GDP riil mitra dagang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Secara rata-rata, variabel trade openness, nilai tukar riil, business freedom, government effectiveness, liner shipping connectivity index, dan dummy communication language berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap inefisiensi ekspor pertanian Indonesia, sedangkan tax burden dan dummy Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan.

International trade played an important role in ASEAN economic growth. The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was one of the efforts to increase international trade flows. The agricultural sector was significant as a contributor to the surplus on Indonesia’s trade balance and managed to survive amid global uncertainty. This study aimed to analyze the value of export efficiency before and after the AEC agreement, as well as the determinants of export and export inefficiency for Indonesia’s five largest agricultural commodities to several ASEAN countries during the period 2003-2022. The method used in this study was the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. The analysis results showed that the average value of export efficiency for Indonesia’s top five agricultural commodities after the AEC agreement was 45,25 percent, which decreased by 12,34 percent compared to before the AEC agreement. Indonesia’s real GDP and economic distance variables had a negative and significant effect on Indonesian agricultural exports, while the real GDP of trading partners had a positive and significant impact. On average, variables such as trade openness, real exchange rate, business freedom, government effectiveness, liner shipping connectivity index, and communication language dummy had a negative and significant effect on the inefficiency of Indonesia’s agricultural exports, while tax burden and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) dummy variable had a positive and significant impact.