Analisis Efisiensi dan Determinan Ekspor Sepuluh Komoditas Pertanian Terbesar Indonesia ke Negara di ASEAN+3

Abstract

Ekspor Indonesia ke ASEAN+3 memiliki porsi yang sangat besar. Sektor pertanian menjadi salah satu sektor penting sebagai penyumbang surplus terhadap neraca perdagangan bahkan menjadi sektor yang berhasil bertahan ditengah pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis determinan ekspor sepuluh komoditas pertanian terbesar Indonesia ke negara mitra dagangnya serta nilai efisiensi ekspornya. Metode yang digunakan adalah stochastic frontier gravity model dengan data panel berupa nilai ekspor sepuluh komoditas pertanian terbesar Indonesia ke 12 negara di kawasan ASEAN+3 periode 2000 – 2021. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel GDP riil Indonesia dan GDP riil negara mitra dagang, trade openness dan nilai tukar riil negara mitra dagang berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor. Sedangkan, variabel jarak ekonomi berpengaruh negatif terhadap nilai ekspor. Rata-rata nilai efisiensi ekspor sepuluh komoditas pertanian terbesar Indonesia ke negara di ASEAN+3 yakni sebesar 0,37.

Indonesia's exports to ASEAN+3 have a considerable portion. The agricultural sector has become one of the essential sectors as a surplus contributor to the trade balance. It has even become a sector that has managed to survive amid the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to analyze the determinants of exports of Indonesia's ten largest agricultural commodities to its trading partner countries and the value of their export efficiency. The method used is a stochastic frontier gravity model with panel data in the form of the export value of Indonesia's ten largest agricultural commodities to 12 countries in the ASEAN+3 region for the period of 2000 – 2021. The result showed that the average export efficiency value of Indonesia’s ten largest agricultural commodities to countries in ASEAN+3 is 0,37. Furthermore, the results showed that the variables of Indonesia's real GDP and the real GDP of trading partner countries, trade openness, and the real exchange rate of trading partner countries have positively affected on the export values. Meanwhile, the economic distance variable has a negative impact on export values.