Determinan dan Efisiensi Ekspor Sektor Pengolahan Indonesia ke Kawasan ASEAN Plus Three

Abstract

Kinerja ekspor dapat dianalisis menggunakan efisiensi yang merupakan rasio ekspor aktual terhadap potensi ekspor. Salah satu sektor yang berkontribusi pada ekspor Indonesia adalah sektor pengolahan dengan share sekitar 80 persen dari total ekspor non migas setiap tahun. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tingkat efisiensi dan determinan yang memengaruhi ekspor sektor pengolahan Indonesia ke kawasan ASEAN plus three. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini data time series periode 2017-2021 dan cross section 12 negara mitra kawasan ASEAN plus three. Metode analisis menggunakan stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) menunjukkan efisiensi ekspor Indonesia terbesar ke Vietnam sebesar dan terendah ke Laos. GDP Riil Indonesia, GDP Riil negara mitra, trade openness signifikan berpengaruh positif, jarak ekonomi dan real exchange rate signifikan berpengaruh negatif dan dummy landlocked tidak signifikan terhadap ekspor sektor pengolahan Indonesia ke kawasan ASEAN plus three.

Export performance can be analyzed using efficiency, which is the ratio of actual exports to potential exports. One sector that contributes to Indonesia's exports is the manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 80 percent of total non-oil and gas exports every year. This study aims to analyze the level of efficiency and determinants affecting exports of the Indonesian manufacturing sector to ASEAN plus three areas. The data used in this study was a time series for the 2017–2021 period and a cross-section of 12 partner countries in ASEAN plus three regions. The analysis method used was the stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM), which shows that the largest and lowest export efficiency of the Indonesian processing sector is to Vietnam and Laos. Indonesia's real GDP, the partner country's real GDP, and trade openness had a positive and significant effect, while economic distance and the real exchange rate had a negative and significant effect, and a dummy landlocked country showed no significant estimation for Indonesia's processing sector exports to ASEAN plus three areas.