Kebijakan Rendah Emisi Negara Anggota G20 dan Kinerja Ekspor Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara eksportir kendaraan bermotor di dunia dengan peringkat ke-14 dunia, peringkat ke-11 G20, dan peringkat ke-2 ASEAN. Fenomena peningkatan emisi dari sektor transportasi memicu negara G20 menerapkan kebijakan rendah emisi melalui kebijakan kendaraan listrik (electric vehicle policy). Timbulnya kekhawatiran penurunan ekspor kendaraan bermotor berbahan bakar minyak Indonesia ke negara anggota G20. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbedaan kinerja ekspor kendaraan bermotor Indonesia ketika kebijakan EVP diterapkan di 11 negara anggota G20 dalam periode 2012-2021. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah RCA, EPD, X-Model dan regresi data panel. Hasil analisis RCA menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia memiliki daya saing komparatif di Meksiko, Arab Saudi, dan Afrika Selatan. Secara EPD dan X-Model, kendaraan bermotor Indonesia didominasi posisi falling star dan pasar kurang potensial. Analisis regresi data panel menunjukkan variabel GDP perkapita negara tujuan, dummy EVP Indonesia, dummy EVP negara tujuan positif dan signifikan. Sedangkan variabel jarak ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, tetapi variabel nilai tukar riil, tarif impor, dan dummy Covid-19 tidak signifikan.

Indonesia is one of the world's motor vehicle exporters, ranking 14th globally, 11th in the G20, and 2nd in ASEAN. The increasing emissions from the transportation sector have prompted the G20 countries to implement a low-emission policy through an electric vehicle policy. Concerns arose over the decline in Indonesia's exports of oil-fueled motor vehicles to G20 member countries. This study aims to analyze differences in the performance of Indonesia's motor vehicle exports when the EVP policy was implemented in 11 G20 member countries in 2012-2021. RCA, EPD, X-Model, and panel data regression are the research methods used. The results of the RCA analysis show that Indonesia has comparative competitiveness with Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Regarding EPD and X-Model, Indonesian motor vehicle products are in a Falling Star position with less potential market development. Panel data regression analysis shows that the variable GDP per capita of the destination country, Indonesia's dummy EVP, destination country's dummy EVP is positive and significant. Meanwhile, the economic distance variable has a negative and significant effect, but real exchange rate, import tariffs, and dummy Covid-19 not significant.