Volatilitas dan Pembentukan Harga Bawang Putih di Indonesia

Abstract

Allium sativum or garlic is one of the agricultural commodities that has a high level of consumption in Indonesia. However, domestic demand for garlic depends on imported garlic products, causing uncertainty in domestic garlic prices. Uncertainty in the price of garlic in Indonesia is related to how high the increase or decrease in the price of garlic is, or called by price volatility. It is also will get worse with the Covid-19 pandemic because the main import destination for Indonesian garlic is China. The aim of this study was to analyze the volatility of Indonesian garlic prices before and during the Covid-19 outbreak. The data used is the consumer price of Indonesian garlic and is analyzed using the ARCH-GARCH analysis. The results of this study are that volatility occurred both before and during Covid-19. The highest volatility occurred in July 2019 which was allegedly the result of a surge in garlic imports from China. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the price of garlic also experienced price volatility. The volatility was due to the panic buying impact of Covid-19. Covid-19 at the beginning of 2020 caused distributors to reduce the supply of garlic to the market, because it was feared that it would make it difficult for distributors to import garlic.