| dc.description.abstract | Climate change has impacted various sectors, including water resources. The extent of the potential impact of climate change on hydrometeorological disasters has prompted a special study to manage extreme climate change, especially precipitation. Objectives of the study are to examine the reliability of high- resolution climate model outputs in representing historical and present extreme rainfall conditions and hydrological responses at watershed scale and analyses the hydrological response (flow discharge) to extreme precipitation in the future. The study used rainfall from high-resolution climate model (RCM), i.e. CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Southeast Asia) and NEX-GDDP (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projects) from three time periods, i.e. past (1981-2005), present (2006-2020), and future (2021- 2045) for Ciliwung watershed. The study applied the quantile mapping method to correct the bias of the RCM data, the hydrology response to rainfall used HEC- HMS model, and relationship between extreme streamflow causing flood with rainfall used regression model. The results of the analysis show that the corrected RCM outputs can represent the observed rain conditions quite well for most of the models, except for the ACCESS1-0 RCP8.5 model. Bias correction using the QM method can reduce the bias value of the model in historical and present periods, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The best performing models are ECEarth, CSIRO, MPI, and CNRM. Most of the models show good performance in representing extreme rainfall conditions. Furthermore, the results of the regression analysis show that extreme streamflow significantly associated with rainfall events one and two days before. Using the regression equations, it is indicated that the annual maximum discharge at the Katulampa and Depok water estimators will increase in the future according to the climate scenario RCP4.5, otherwise in the climate scenario RCP8.5. The frequency of extreme discharges is also predicted to increase in future. | id |
