Lindung Nilai Harga Kopi Arabika di Indonesia Menggunakan Strategi Opsi

Abstract

Meningkatnya konsumsi kopi di Indonesia yang disertai dengan adanya pandemi Covid-19 dan fenomena embun beku di Brazil menyebabkan harga kopi Arabika meningkat pesat. Lindung nilai menggunakan strategi opsi dapat menjadi solusi untuk mengurangi risiko jika menghadapi kondisi bullish di masa depan. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga strategi opsi, yaitu long call, short combo, dan vertical ratio call back spread. Berdasarkan hasil penghitungan, biaya vertical ratio call back spread merupakan yang terendah pada kondisi bearish dan short combo pada kondisi bullish. Pada kondisi neutral, biaya terendah dicapai ketika tidak dilakukan strategi opsi. Ketiga strategi opsi memiliki keuntungan maksimum tak terhingga jika terjadi peningkatan spot price, sedangkan kerugian maksimum terjadi pada kondisi dan nilai yang berbeda-beda. Vertical ratio call back spread lebih menguntungkan pada kondisi bearish, sedangkan short combo lebih menguntungkan pada kondisi bullish.

The increasing consumption of coffee in Indonesia, which is accompanied by the Covid-19 pandemic and the frost phenomenon in Brazil, caused the price of Arabica coffee to increase rapidly. Hedging using an option strategy can be a solution to reduce risk if facing bullish conditions in the future. This study uses three option strategies, namely long call, short combo, and vertical ratio call back spread. Based on the calculation results, the cost of the vertical ratio call back spread is the lowest in bearish conditions and the short combo in bullish conditions. In neutral conditions, the lowest cost is achieved when the option strategy is not carried out. The three option strategies have an infinite maximum profit if the spot price increases, while the maximum loss occurs at different conditions and values. The vertical ratio call back spread is more profitable in bearish conditions, while the short combo is more profitable in bullish conditions.