Dampak El Nino dan La Nina terhadap Harga Kubis dan Bawang Merah di Indonesia

Abstract

Selama satu abad terakhir, suhu permukaan global mengalami peningkatan sehingga menyebabkan perubahan iklim salah satunya El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) yaitu El Nino dan La Nina yang berpengaruh terhadap fluktuasi curah hujan di daerah terdampak. Kubis dan bawang merah adalah komoditas pertanian yang terdampak ENSO karena memiliki umur tanam hingga panen relatif singkat, sehingga fluktuasi curah hujan akan memengaruhi pertumbuhan. Respon bawang merah dan kubis terhadap curah hujan sangat sensitif, apabila curah hujan tinggi mengakibatkan pembusukan umbi dan krop namun ketika kemarau berkepanjangan menyebabkan umbi kering serta perkembangan krop tidak maksimal. Fluktuasi produksi tersebut akan mendorong goncangan pada sisi penawaran, sehingga memengaruhi peningkatan harga komoditas terdampak. Pembentukan harga juga dipengaruhi sisi permintaan dan distribusi dengan salah satu variabel pendukung yang digunakan adalah pembatasan sosial saat COVID-19. Penelitian ini mengkaji dampak ENSO terhadap harga kubis dan bawang merah dengan metode analisis panel spasial untuk meneliti ketergantungan antar wilayah dalam pembentukan harga kedua komoditas. Data yang digunakan berupa 16 provinsi terdampak dengan rentang tahun 2010 hingga 2020 yang dihasilkan melalui analisis korelasi spasial. Diantara 16 provinsi terdampak tersebut adalah Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Barat, Jambi, Sumatera Selatan, Jawa Tengah, Bali, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Kalimantan Timur, Sulawesi Utara, Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Selatan, Sulawesi Barat, Gorontalo, dan Maluku Utara. Hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian adalah La Nina berpengaruh signifikan dalam meningkatkan harga kubis dan bawang merah, diikuti oleh faktor lain diantaranya harga barang lain, produktivitas, PDRB, upah buruh tani subsektor hortikultura, dan dummy COVID-19. Berdasarkan penelitian ini dapat diberikan beberapa rekomendasi kebijakan. Pertama strategi manajerial misalnya melalui peningkatan pembentukan Kerjasama Antar Daerah (KAD) atau pengembangan Internet of Things oleh Tim Penanggulangan Inflasi Daerah (TPID) yang sangat dibutuhkan bagi penanganan urusan yang memiliki dampak lintas daerah salah satunya berupa pembentukan dan pergerakan harga komoditas antar daerah. Kedua adalah strategi mitigasi berupa Kalender Tanam (KATAM) untuk menunjang program pemahaman informasi iklim. Strategi mitigasi selanjutnya adalah Early Warning System (EWS) The Hopers Development yaitu sistem peringatan dini untuk meminimalisasi dampak perubahan iklim. Strategi mitigasi terakhir adalah Peningkatan kapasitas pelaku pertanian dengan pemberian penyuluhan dan edukasi terpadu. Strategi yang ketiga adalah dari aspek adaptasi melalui pengembangan varietas unggul yang mampu beradaptasi dalam segala kondisi iklim.

During the last century, global surface temperatures have increased, causing climate change, one of which is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, which affect rainfall fluctuations in the affected area. One of the agricultural commodities affected by ENSO is vegetables because they have a relatively short growing age to harvest, so fluctuations in rainfall will affect vegetable growth, with the object of this research being cabbage and shallots. The response of shallots to rainfall is very sensitive, if the intensity of rainfall is high, it has the potential to cause rotting of the bulbs, but during prolonged dry seasons it also causes the bulbs to dry out (Zamaniah et al. 2018). Cabbage cultivation also has different risks between seasons, namely when high rainfall leads to a high rate of decay, but when rainfall is low it causes the development of cabbage sprouts to be not optimal (Fitriana 2020). Production fluctuations due to climate change will induce shocks on the supply side, thus affecting the increase in the prices of affected commodities. Furthermore, the formation of the price of a commodity is not only influenced by the supply side, it is also influenced by the demand side and smooth distribution, with one of the supporting variables that will be used is social restrictions during COVID-19. This study examines the impact of El Nino and La Nina on the prices of cabbage and shallots using a spatial panel analysis method to examine the inter-regional dependence in the price formation of the two commodities. The data used are 16 affected provinces with a span of 2010 to 2020 generated through spatial correlation analysis. Among the 16 affected provinces are Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, Central Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Gorontalo, and North Maluku. The results obtained in the study were that La Nina had a significant effect on increasing the price of cabbage and shallots, followed by other factors including prices of other goods, productivity, GRDP, wages of farm laborers in the horticulture sub-sector, and the COVID-19 dummy. Based on this research, several policy recommendations can be given. The first is a managerial strategy, for example through increasing the formation of Kerjasama Antar Daerah (KAD) or the development of the Internet of Things by Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (TPID) which is very much needed for handling affairs that have cross-regional impacts, one of which is the formation and movement of commodity prices between regions. The second is a mitigation strategy in the form of Kalender Tanam (KATAM) to support the program to understand climate information. The next mitigation strategy is The Hopers Development's Early Warning System (EWS), which is an early warning system to minimize the impact of climate change. The last mitigation strategy is to increase the capacity of agricultural actors by providing integrated counseling and education. The third strategy is from the aspect of adaptation through the development of high-yielding varieties that are able to adapt to all climatic conditions.