Perbandingan Model SARIMA dan Intervensi dalam Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Domestik di Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta

Abstract

Pandemi Covid-19 membawa dampak yang cukup besar pada sektor transportasi udara. Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta) mengalami penurunan jumlah penumpang akibat pandemi Covid-19, meskipun demikian Bandara Soetta tetap beroperasi normal. Peramalan jumlah penumpang perlu dilakukan oleh pihak Bandara untuk menentukan kebijakan yang tepat dan mempersiapkan fasilitas-fasilitas yang disediakan jika terjadi kenaikan jumlah penumpang pada masa pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini membandingkan model SARIMA dan intervensi dalam peramalan jumlah penumpang domestik di Bandara Soetta. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMA terbaik yaitu ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 dengan MAPE dan RMSE masing-masing sebesar 55,18% dan 588887,4. Model intervensi terbaik yang diperoleh yaitu ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 5, r = 1 dengan MAPE sebesar 35,25% dan RMSE sebesar 238563,4. Model intervensi lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan model SARIMA dalam melakukan peramalan jumlah penumpang domestik di Bandara Soetta berdasarkan nilai MAPE dan RMSE yang diperoleh.

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the air transportation sector. Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (Soetta) experienced a decrease in the number of passengers due to the Covid-19 pandemic, although Soetta Airport continued to operate normally. Forecasting the number of passengers needs to be done by the airport to determine the right policy. Forecasting is also necessary so that the airport can prepare the needed facilities in the event of an increase in passengers during the Covid-19 pandemic. . This study compares the SARIMA model and the intervention in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport. The results showed that the best SARIMA model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 with MAPE and RMSE of 55.18% and 588887.4, respectively. The best intervention model obtained was ARIMA(0,1 ,1) (1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 5, r = 1 with MAPE of 35,25% and RMSE of 238563,4. The MAPE and RMSE values obtained indicate that the intervention model is better than the SARIMA model in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport during the Covid-19 pandemic.