Perbandingan Model SARIMA dan Intervensi dalam Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Domestik di Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta
Abstract
Pandemi Covid-19 membawa dampak yang cukup besar pada sektor
transportasi udara. Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta) mengalami
penurunan jumlah penumpang akibat pandemi Covid-19, meskipun demikian
Bandara Soetta tetap beroperasi normal. Peramalan jumlah penumpang perlu
dilakukan oleh pihak Bandara untuk menentukan kebijakan yang tepat dan
mempersiapkan fasilitas-fasilitas yang disediakan jika terjadi kenaikan jumlah
penumpang pada masa pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini membandingkan model
SARIMA dan intervensi dalam peramalan jumlah penumpang domestik di
Bandara Soetta. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMA terbaik
yaitu ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 dengan MAPE dan RMSE masing-masing sebesar
55,18% dan 588887,4. Model intervensi terbaik yang diperoleh yaitu
ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 5, r = 1 dengan MAPE sebesar 35,25% dan
RMSE sebesar 238563,4. Model intervensi lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan
model SARIMA dalam melakukan peramalan jumlah penumpang domestik di
Bandara Soetta berdasarkan nilai MAPE dan RMSE yang diperoleh. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the air
transportation sector. Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (Soetta) experienced a
decrease in the number of passengers due to the Covid-19 pandemic, although
Soetta Airport continued to operate normally. Forecasting the number of
passengers needs to be done by the airport to determine the right policy.
Forecasting is also necessary so that the airport can prepare the needed facilities in
the event of an increase in passengers during the Covid-19 pandemic. . This study
compares the SARIMA model and the intervention in forecasting the number of
domestic passengers at Soetta Airport. The results showed that the best SARIMA
model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 with MAPE and RMSE of 55.18% and
588887.4, respectively. The best intervention model obtained was ARIMA(0,1 ,1)
(1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 5, r = 1 with MAPE of 35,25% and RMSE of 238563,4. The
MAPE and RMSE values obtained indicate that the intervention model is better
than the SARIMA model in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at
Soetta Airport during the Covid-19 pandemic.