Prediksi Financial Distress pada Bank Syariah di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama Masa Pandemi serta Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhinya

Abstract

Penurunan profitabilitas yang diukur oleh return on assets (ROA) menunjukkan kinerja keuangan bank umum syariah (BUS) menurun, sehingga memungkinkan terjadinya financial distress. Tujuan penelitian ini menganalisis hasil prediksi financial distress sebelum dan selama masa pandemi serta menganalisis pengaruh faktor internal dan eksternal terhadap financial distress BUS. Metode yang digunakan ialah model Grover, Zmijewski, Altman dan regresi logistik biner. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa Altman memprediksi enam BUS berada pada grey zone sebelum pandemi COVID-19, dan lima BUS berada pada grey zone selama pandemi COVID-19. Zmijewski memprediksi dua BUS berada pada distress zone sebelum pandemi COVID-19, dan lima BUS berada pada distress zone selama pandemi COVID-19. Grover memprediksi baik sebelum maupun selama pandemi COVID-19 seluruh BUS berada pada safe zone. Pada model 1 NOM dan CAR berpengaruh negatif signifikan, pada model 2 NOM, CAR dan PDB berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sedangkan pada model 3,4,5 NOM dan PDB berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Pada seluruh model, BOPO berpengaruh positif signifikan. Size dan inflasi tidak memengaruhi financial distress BUS.

A decreasing in return on assets (ROA) shows the sharia commercial banks' (BUS) financial performance is decreasing, so it allows financial distress. This study aims to predicts financial distress before and during the pandemic and to analyze the influence of internal and external factors on BUS financial distress. The methods used are the Altman model, Zmijewski, Grover, and binary logistic. The results show that Altman predicts six BUS are in grey zone before pandemic and five BUS are in grey zone during pandemic. Zmijewski predicts two BUS are in distress zone before pandemic and five BUS are in distress zone during pandemic. Grover predicts all BUS will be in the safe zone. First model indicates that NOM and CAR have a significant negative effect; second model indicates that NOM, CAR, and PDB have a significant negative effect; third, fourth, fifth models indicates that NOM and PDB have a significant negative effect. All models indicate that BOPO has a significant positive effect. Size and inflation do not affect significantly financial distress.