Pengaruh Kondisi Makroekonomi Terhadap Kinerja Perbankan di Indonesia

Abstract

Beberapa penelitian menganalisis pengaruh kondisi makroekonomi terhadap kinerja perbankan, namun masih menghasilkan kesimpulan yang inkonsisten. Untuk itu, penelitian ini kembali menganalisis pengaruh kondisi makroekonomi terhadap kinerja perbankan berdasarkan lima indikator rasio kinerja keuangan, yaitu rasio profitabilitas, permodalan, efisiensi, risiko kredit, dan likuiditas di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pemodelan Autoregressive Distributes Lag (ARDL). Hasil estimasi menunjukan variabel-variabel makroekonomi memiliki hubungan atau keseimbangan jangka panjang dengan kelima indikator rasio kinerja perbankan. Dalam jangka panjang, rasio profitabilitas (ROA) dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar. Rasio permodalan (CAR) dipengaruhi oleh IPI, inflasi, IHSG, dan harga minyak dunia. Rasio efisiensi (BOPO) dipengaruhi oleh IPI dan inflasi. Rasio risiko kredit (NPL) dipengaruhi oleh inflasi, nilai tukar, dan IHSG. Serta rasio likuiditas (LDR) dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar, IHSG, dan harga minyak dunia. Pengaruh jangka pendek, rasio profitabilitas (ROA) dipengaruhi oleh IPI dan inflasi. Rasio permodalan (CAR) dipengaruhi oleh IPI, inflasi, dan IHSG. Rasio risiko kredit (NPL) dipengaruhi oleh IPI, inflasi, dan harga minyak dunia. Serta rasio likuiditas (LDR) dipengaruhi oleh inflasi, nilai tukar, dan IHSG.

Several studied analyzed the impact of macroeconomics conditions on banking performance, but still yielded inconsistent conclusions. Therefore, this studied again analyzes macroeconomic conditions impact on banking performance based on five indicators of financial performance ratios, namely profitability, capital, efficiency, credit risk, and liquidity ratio in Indonesia used Autoregressive Distributes Lag (ARDL) modeling. The estimation results showed that macroeconomic variables had a long-term balance or relationship with the five banking performance ratio indicators. In the long run, profitability ratio (ROA) was affected by exchange rate. The capital ratio (CAR) was affected by IPI, inflation, IHSG, and oil price. The efficiency ratio (BOPO) was affected by IPI and inflation. The credit risk ratio (NPL) was affected by inflation, exchange rate, and IHSG. And the liquidity ratio (LDR) was affected by exchange rate, IHSG, and oil price. Short term effects, profitability ratio (ROA) was affected by IPI and inflation. The capital ratio (CAR) was affected by IPI, inflation, and IHSG. The credit risk ratio was affected by IPI, inflation, and oil price. And the liquidity ratio (LDR) was affected by inflation, exchange rate, and IHSG.