http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/7472 Undergraduate Theses on Faculty of Economics and Management 2026-05-29T20:07:19Z http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/173157 Analisis Pengaruh Asimetris Determinan Arus Masuk Remitansi di China Tahun 1982–2024: Pendekatan NARDL AD'HAM, ASAD HABIBIE Arus masuk remitansi memiliki peran penting sebagai penyangga makroekonomi, namun rentan terhadap guncangan asimetris. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh asimetris ketidakpastian dunia, keterbukaan perdagangan, Akses Institusi Keuangan, dan nilai tukar terhadap remitansi di China periode 1982-2024 menggunakan metode NARDL. China dipilih sebagai objek penelitian karena kestabilannya dibanding sumber dana asing lain. Hasil estimasi mengonfirmasi kointegrasi jangka panjang dengan pengaruh asimetris jangka panjang pada Ketidakpastian Dunia, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, dan Nilai Tukar. Peningkatan ketidakpastian dan restriksi dagang memicu lonjakan remitansi (motif asuransi), sedangkan fluktuasi nilai tukar (apresiasi/depresiasi) justru menyusutkannya. Sebaliknya, Akses Institusi Keuangan berpengaruh simetris dan negatif, mengonfirmasi hipotesis substitusi finansial. Hampir seluruh variabel simetri dalam jangka pendek, kecuali keterbukaan perdagangan yang tidak diestimasi. Pemerintah disarankan mengoptimalkan jaring pengaman sosial guna memitigasi guncangan eksternal, serta menstabilkan volatilitas nilai tukar.; Remittance inflows play a crucial role as a macroeconomic buffer, yet they remain vulnerable to asymmetric shocks. This study aims to analyze the asymmetric effects of world uncertainty, trade openness, financial institution access, and the exchange rate on remittances in China from 1982 to 2024 using NARDL approach. China is selected as the research object due to its stability compared to other sources of foreign funds. The estimation results confirm long-run cointegration, revealing long-run asymmetric effects of world uncertainty, trade openness, and the exchange rate. An increase in uncertainty and trade restrictions triggers a surge in remittances, confirming the insurance motive, whereas exchange rate fluctuations (both appreciation and depreciation) conversely reduce them. Conversely, financial institution access exerts a symmetric and negative effect, validating the financial substitution hypothesis. In the short run, the transmission of shocks across almost all independent variables is symmetric, except for trade openness, which is not estimated in the model specification. Consequently, the government is advised to optimize social safety nets to mitigate external shocks and to stabilize exchange rate volatility. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/173156 Pengaruh Asimetris Determinan Makroekonomi terhadap Remitansi di India: Pendekatan NARDL Khadijah, Callula Khairunisa India merupakan penerima remitansi terbesar di dunia, dengan penerimaan mencapai lebih dari 125 miliar dolar AS pada tahun 2023, yang ditopang oleh diaspora yang tersebar di kawasan Timur Tengah, Amerika Serikat, dan Eropa. Meskipun relatif stabil dalam jangka panjang, remitansi India tidak selalu merespons perubahan kondisi makroekonomi secara seragam, yang mengindikasikan potensi hubungan nonlinear. Penelitian ini menganalisis karakteristik hubungan dan menguji asimetri antara remitansi dan empat determinan makroekonomi di India, yaitu keterbukaan perdagangan, nilai tukar nominal, ketidakpastian ekonomi, dan kualitas institusi keuangan, menggunakan data tahunan periode 1980 hingga 2025 dengan model Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Hasil menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang yang stabil, dikonfirmasi oleh error correction term yang signifikan. Uji Wald jangka panjang mengonfirmasi asimetri yang signifikan pada keterbukaan perdagangan dan ketidakpastian ekonomi. Uji Wald jangka pendek untuk kualitas institusi keuangan menghasilkan asimetri yang signifikan, mengindikasikan bahwa pengaruh asimetris variabel tersebut bersifat temporer. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa respons remitansi bergantung pada arah guncangan ekonomi, sehingga pendekatan nonlinear menjadi penting dalam analisis dan perumusan kebijakan remitansi.; India is the world's largest remittance recipient, receiving over USD 125 billion in 2023, supported by a geographically dispersed diaspora across the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. Although remittances are relatively stable in the long run, they do not always respond uniformly to macroeconomic changes, suggesting potential nonlinearity. This study analyzes the relationship and tests asymmetry between remittances and four macroeconomic determinants in India, namely trade openness, nominal exchange rate, economic uncertainty, and financial institutions quality, using annual data from 1980 to 2025 within a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. Results indicate a stable long-run relationship confirmed by a significant error correction term. The long-run Wald test confirms significant asymmetry for trade openness and economic uncertainty. The short-run Wald test for financial institutions quality reveals significant asymmetry, indicating that its asymmetric effect is temporary. These findings suggest that remittance responses depend on the direction of economic shocks, underscoring the relevance of nonlinear approaches in remittance analysis and policy formulation. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/173154 Analisis Pengaruh Asimetris Determinan Arus Masuk Remitansi di Filipina Tahun 1987-2024 : Pendekatan NARDL DANIEL, RIDZIK MALKY Remitansi merupakan penopang utama ekonomi Filipina sekaligus salah satu yang terbesar di ASEAN, namun sangat rentan terhadap guncangan eksternal dan internal. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh asimetris Ketidakpastian Filipina (WUI), PDB Amerika Serikat, Akses Institusi Keuangan (FIA), Nilai Tukar Riil (REER), dan Emisi Karbon (CO2) terhadap remitansi periode 1987–2024 menggunakan metode Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Hasil uji Bounds mengonfirmasi adanya kointegrasi. Estimasi membuktikan efek asimetris yang kuat pada keseimbangan jangka panjang; di mana penurunan WUI dan ekspansi PDB AS meningkatkan remitansi akibat menguatnya kapasitas finansial. Sebaliknya, penurunan CO2 menurunkan aliran dana seiring meredanya motif asuransi. Guncangan FIA dan REER secara asimetris menurunkan remitansi akibat efek substitusi dan motif spekulasi. Dalam jangka pendek, respons remitansi terhadap CO2 terkonfirmasi simetris, sedangkan variabel lainnya menunjukkan Dynamic Asymmetry melalui perbedaan jeda waktu penyesuaian. Pemerintah disarankan menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar dan memeratakan infrastruktur perbankan agar remitansi optimal sebagai penyangga krisis.; Remittances are a primary pillar of the Philippine economy and one of the largest in ASEAN, yet highly vulnerable to external and internal shocks. This study analyzes the asymmetric effects of Philippine Uncertainty (WUI), United States GDP, Financial Institution Access (FIA), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), and Carbon Emissions (CO2) on remittances from 1987 to 2024 using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method. The Bounds test confirms the presence of cointegration. The estimation proves strong asymmetric effects in the long-run equilibrium; where a decrease in WUI and US GDP expansion increase remittances due to the strengthening of financial capacity. Conversely, a reduction in CO2 decreases fund flows as the insurance motive subsides. Shocks in FIA and REER asymmetrically decrease remittances due to substitution effects and speculative motives. In the short run, the remittance response to CO2 is confirmed to be symmetric, while other variables exhibit Dynamic Asymmetry through differences in adjustment lag time. The government is advised to maintain exchange rate stability and equalize banking infrastructure so that remittances remain optimal as a crisis buffer. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/173151 Analisis Efek Asimetris Determinan Arus Penerimaan Remitansi Indonesia Tahun 1987-2024 Hendartina, Sabila Adha Remitansi merupakan sumber dana eksternal yang krusial bagi Indonesia. Arus dana remitansi lebih stabil dibandingkan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) dan melampaui Official Development Assistance (ODA). Respons remitansi terhadap guncangan makroekonomi sering kali tidak proporsional. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh asimetris pendidikan, ketidakpastian ekonomi, suku bunga riil, dan emisi karbon terhadap penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Digunakan data sekunder time series tahun 1987-2024 yang bersumber dari World Development Indicators (WDI) dan World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Metode penelitian yaitu analisis deskriptif dan pendekatan ekonometrika melalui Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Korelasi pendidikan dan emisi karbon kuat, sedangkan korelasi ketidakpastian ekonomi dan suku bunga riil lemah dengan penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat efek asimetris antara pendidikan, ketidakpastian ekonomi, suku bunga riil, dan emisi karbon di jangka panjang terhadap penerimaan remitansi di Indonesia. Variabel pendidikan dan ketidakpastian ekonomi juga memberikan efek asimetris di jangka pendek.; Remittances are a crucial source of external funding for Indonesia. Remittance flows are more stable than Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and exceed Official Development Assistance (ODA). The response of remittances to macroeconomic shocks is often disproportionate. This study analyzes the asymmetric effects of education, economic uncertainty, real interest rates, and carbon emissions on remittance inflows in Indonesia. It utilizes secondary time-series data from 1987 to 2024, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). The research methods employed include descriptive analysis and an econometric approach using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results reveal that education and carbon emissions have a strong correlation with remittance inflows in Indonesia, whereas economic uncertainty and real interest rates show a weak correlation. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that education, economic uncertainty, real interest rates, and carbon emissions have long-term asymmetric effects on remittance inflows in Indonesia. Additionally, the variables of education and economic uncertainty also exhibit asymmetric effects in the short term. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z