http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/91 2026-11-08T01:46:16Z 2026-11-08T01:46:16Z Fitrianto, Imam http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/180135 2026-10-19T06:17:41Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Model Dinamis Pengelolaan Ruang Pesisir Berbasis Konservasi di Tepian Megacity Jakarta (Studi Kasus di Gugusan Pulau Tidung) Fitrianto, Imam Gugusan Pulau Tidung merupakan sistem sosial-ekologi pulau kecil yang berinteraksi langsung dengan megacity Jakarta. Kedekatan tersebut memberikan peluang berupa akses pasar, konektivitas, infrastruktur, dan aktivitas ekonomi, tetapi sekaligus meningkatkan tekanan wisata, pencemaran, kebutuhan ruang, dan kompleksitas tata kelola. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model dinamis pengelolaan ruang pesisir berbasis konservasi yang mengintegrasikan faktor penentu, struktur kelembagaan, status keberlanjutan, dan dinamika sistem sebagai dasar pengujian alternatif kebijakan. Penelitian menggunakan rancangan sekuensial-integratif dalam empat tahap, yaitu systematic literature review publikasi Scopus 2015–2025, Interpretive Structural Modeling terhadap sebelas variabel kelembagaan berdasarkan penilaian sepuluh pakar, Multi-Aspect Sustainability Analysis terhadap 40 atribut dalam enam dimensi, serta model sistem dinamik periode 2026–2045. Model mengintegrasikan tekanan megacity, ekologi, tata kelola, masyarakat, ekonomi biru, ruang dan infrastruktur, ketahanan iklim, daya dukung, serta pariwisata, kemudian diuji melalui tiga skenario dan 2.000 Latin Hypercube Sampling runs. Hasil penelitian mengidentifikasi 17 kelompok faktor yang memengaruhi efektivitas pengelolaan. Analisis kelembagaan menunjukkan bahwa kejelasan pembagian kewenangan antarlembaga merupakan penggerak struktural utama, sedangkan komitmen politik, sinkronisasi kebijakan, koordinasi, pendanaan, kapasitas sumber daya manusia, serta monitoring dan penegakan hukum menjadi faktor linkage. Indeks keberlanjutan agregat sebesar 70,14 tergolong berkelanjutan, tetapi menunjukkan sustainability asymmetry. Dimensi sosial dan spasial masing-masing bernilai 83,33, ekonomi biru 79,17, ketahanan iklim 75,00, dan ekologi 65,63, sedangkan kelembagaan hanya 34,38. Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa tata kelola merupakan faktor pembatas utama keberlanjutan. Simulasi menunjukkan bahwa indeks keberlanjutan tahun 2045 mencapai 81,37 pada skenario kebijakan berjalan, 68,51 pada skenario tekanan megacity, dan 92,63 pada skenario konservasi terintegrasi. Pada skenario konservasi terintegrasi, indeks tata kelola mencapai 94,18 dan ekologi 89,57. Dynamic carrying capacity meningkat menjadi 372.097 visitor-days per tahun dengan tourism pressure 0,374, sedangkan pada skenario tekanan megacity daya dukung menurun menjadi 266.493 visitor-days dan tourism pressure meningkat menjadi 1,106. Peringkat skenario tetap stabil pada analisis ketidakpastian dan reformasi tata kelola menjadi parameter yang paling sensitif. Kebaruan penelitian terletak pada arsitektur integrasi empiris yang dapat ditelusuri dari bukti literatur, struktur kelembagaan, diagnosis keberlanjutan, hingga simulasi kebijakan. Penelitian ini mengusulkan Megacity–Small Island Governance-Mediated Sustainability Framework dan konsep Governance-Mediated Capacity Dividend, yaitu mekanisme ketika penguatan tata kelola meningkatkan efektivitas pengendalian tekanan dan pemulihan sistem sehingga daya dukung dinamis meningkat. Temuan ini memperluas daya dukung dari batas yang relatif statis menjadi kapasitas yang berubah mengikuti kondisi sosial-ekologi dan kualitas tata kelola. Implikasi utamanya adalah penguatan kewenangan dan koordinasi perlu dilaksanakan bersama pengendalian limbah, perlindungan habitat, pengelolaan wisata berbasis daya dukung, pemberdayaan masyarakat, pembiayaan konservasi, dan peningkatan ketahanan iklim. Model digunakan sebagai laboratorium kebijakan adaptif, bukan sebagai proyeksi deterministik kondisi tahun 2045.; The Tidung Islands Cluster is a small-island social-ecological system directly connected to the Jakarta megacity. This proximity provides market access, connectivity, infrastructure, and economic opportunities, while simultaneously increasing tourism pressure, pollution, spatial demand, and governance complexity. This study aimed to develop a dynamic model of conservation-based coastal spatial management integrating management determinants, institutional structure, sustainability status, and temporal system dynamics as a basis for testing policy alternatives. The study employed a sequential-integrative design comprising a systematic literature review of Scopus publications from 2015–2025, Interpretive Structural Modeling of eleven institutional variables based on assessments by ten experts, Multi-Aspect Sustainability Analysis of 40 attributes across six dimensions, and a system dynamics model for 2026–2045. The model integrated megacity pressures, ecology, governance, community capacity, blue economy, spatial and infrastructure capacity, climate resilience, carrying capacity, and tourism. Three scenarios were tested, together with 2,000 Latin Hypercube Sampling runs. The results identified 17 factor groups influencing management effectiveness. Clarity of inter-institutional authority emerged as the main structural driver, while political commitment, policy synchronization, coordination, financing, human-resource capacity, monitoring, and enforcement formed critical linkage factors. The aggregate sustainability index was 70.14, classified as sustainable but characterized by substantial sustainability asymmetry. Social and spatial dimensions each scored 83.33, blue economy 79.17, climate resilience 75.00, ecology 65.63, and governance only 34.38, indicating governance as the primary sustainability bottleneck. By 2045, the sustainability index reached 81.37 under current policy, 68.51 under megacity pressure, and 92.63 under integrated conservation. Under integrated conservation, governance increased to 94.18 and ecology to 89.57. Dynamic carrying capacity increased to 372,097 visitor-days per year with tourism pressure of 0.374, while under megacity pressure carrying capacity declined to 266,493 visitor-days and tourism pressure increased to 1.106. Scenario rankings remained stable under uncertainty analysis, with governance reform emerging as the most sensitive parameter. The novelty of this study lies in a traceable empirical integration architecture linking literature-based evidence, institutional structure, sustainability diagnosis, and policy simulation. The study proposes a Megacity–Small Island Governance-Mediated Sustainability Framework and the concept of Governance-Mediated Capacity Dividend, describing how stronger governance improves pressure control and system recovery, thereby increasing dynamic carrying capacity. This extends carrying capacity from a relatively static limit to a dynamic property shaped by social-ecological conditions and governance quality. The main implication is that institutional strengthening should proceed together with pollution control, habitat protection, carrying-capacity-based tourism management, community empowerment, conservation financing, and climate resilience. The model is intended as an adaptive policy laboratory rather than a deterministic forecast of conditions in 2045.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Kartika, Nadia Dwi http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/179917 2026-09-09T06:20:20Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Strategi Pengembangan Industri Bioetanol Sagu dengan Penerapan Prinsip Biorefinery di Kabupaten Kepulauan Meranti Kartika, Nadia Dwi Ketergantungan Indonesia pada bahan bakar fosil mendorong pemerintah menetapkan target penyediaan bioetanol 1,2 juta kiloliter per tahun melalui Peraturan Presiden Nomor 40 Tahun 2023, guna mendukung mandatori E5 dan rencana E10 pada 2030. Namun, kapasitas produksi fuel-grade nasional hanya mencakup kurang dari 6% dari kebutuhan nasional. Sagu (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) di Kabupaten Kepulauan Meranti berpotensi mendukung pengembangan bioetanol karena memiliki produktivitas pati yang tinggi dan dapat tumbuh di lahan gambut melalui sistem paludikultur. Meskipun memiliki potensi besar, pengembangan industrinya memerlukan strategi yang mengintegrasikan aspek teknis, lingkungan, ekonomi, dan kelembagaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan merumuskan strategi pengembangan industri bioetanol berbasis sagu dengan penerapan prinsip biorefinery melalui enam analisis: (1) potensi bahan baku dan ketersediaan lahan berbasis GIS; (2) neraca massa dan energi sistem biorefinery skala industri 50 kL/hari; (3) penilaian dampak lingkungan dengan Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) gate-to-gate tiga skenario energi; (4) analisis kelayakan tekno-ekonomi berbasis Discounted Cash Flow; (5) pemetaan struktur pemangku kepentingan dengan Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM); dan (6) perumusan strategi SWOT-TOWS-QSPM. Hasil analisis spasial mengidentifikasi 130.170 ha lahan sesuai sagu, terdiri atas 55.433 ha zona pangan dan 74.737 ha zona energi, dengan potensi bioetanol sebesar 271–370 juta liter/tahun. Tren luas panen dan produksi pati 2014–2024 menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang konsisten (231,49 ha/tahun; R²=0,917), dengan produktivitas meningkat dari 5,19 menjadi 6,59 ton/ha. Neraca massa-energi menunjukkan bahwa sistem biorefinery terintegrasi yang memanfaatkan co-product padat sagu dan biogas stillage mampu memenuhi kebutuhan energi pabrik secara internal. Hasil LCA menunjukkan bahwa skenario biorefinery terintegrasi (S3-BES) menurunkan Global Warming Potential sebesar 89% (dari 1,74 menjadi 0,19 kg CO2-eq/L) dan deplesi fosil sebesar 91%, yang divalidasi melalui simulasi Monte Carlo dengan 10.000 iterasi. Analisis tekno-ekonomi menunjukkan hanya S3-BES yang layak dengan NPV USD 6,50 juta, IRR 15,11%, payback period 5,8 tahun, dan Minimum Selling Price USD 0,52/L. Analisis ISM menempatkan Pemerintah Pusat sebagai aktor penggerak utama dalam pengembangan industri bioetanol sagu dengan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral sebagai pembuat kebijakan, sedangkan integrasi SWOT–TOWS–QSPM menghasilkan 16 strategi prioritas yang berfokus pada pengembangan biorefinery, penguatan kelembagaan dan pembiayaan hijau, pengelolaan paludikultur, serta diversifikasi produk. Penelitian ini menghasilkan kerangka analisis terintegrasi yang menghubungkan analisis spasial, neraca massa dan energi, LCA, TEA, ISM, serta SWOT–TOWSQSPM dalam penyusunan strategi pengembangan industri bioetanol berbasis sagu di lahan gambut tropis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan prinsip biorefinery menjadi dasar untuk mencapai kelayakan teknis, lingkungan, dan ekonomi, sedangkan keberhasilan implementasinya bergantung pada penguatan kelembagaan, dukungan pembiayaan, serta kebijakan yang terintegrasi.; Indonesia's dependence on fossil fuels has prompted the government to establish a national bioethanol supply target of 1.2 million kiloliters per year through Presidential Regulation No. 40 of 2023 to support the E5 mandate and the planned E10 implementation by 2030. However, national fuel-grade bioethanol production capacity currently accounts for less than 6% of national demand. Sago (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) in the Meranti Islands Regency has the potential to support bioethanol development due to its high starch productivity and its ability to grow on peatlands under a paludiculture system. Despite this potential, industrial development requires a strategy that integrates technical, environmental, economic, and institutional aspects. This study aimed to formulate a strategy for developing a sago-based bioethanol industry through the application of biorefinery principles using six analyses: (1) GIS-based assessment of feedstock potential and land availability; (2) mass and energy balance of a 50 kL/day industrial-scale biorefinery system; (3) environmental impact assessment using gate-to-gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) under three energy scenarios; (4) techno-economic feasibility analysis based on Discounted Cash Flow; (5) stakeholder structure mapping using Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM); and (6) strategy formulation using SWOT-TOWS-QSPM. The spatial analysis identified 130,170 ha of land suitable for sago cultivation, comprising 55,433 ha of food-production zones and 74,737 ha of energy zones, with a bioethanol production potential of 271–370 million liters/year. Trends in harvested area and starch production from 2014 to 2024 showed consistent growth (231.49 ha/year; R² = 0.917), with productivity increasing from 5.19 to 6.59 tons/ha. The mass and energy balance demonstrated that an integrated biorefinery system utilizing solid sago co-products and stillage-derived biogas could meet the plant's energy requirements internally. The LCA results showed that the integrated biorefinery scenario (S3-BES) reduced Global Warming Potential by 89% (from 1.74 to 0.19 kg CO2-eq/L) and fossil depletion by 91%, as validated through a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. The techno-economic analysis indicated that only the S3-BES scenario was economically feasible, with an NPV of USD 6.50 million, an IRR of 15.11%, a payback period of 5.8 years, and a Minimum Selling Price of USD 0.52/L. The ISM analysis identified the Central Government as the primary driver of the development of the sago-based bioethanol industry, with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources serving as the key policymaking institution. Meanwhile, the integration of SWOT-TOWS-QSPM generated 16 priority strategies focusing on biorefinery development, institutional strengthening, green financing, paludiculture management, and product diversification. This study developed an integrated analytical framework that links spatial analysis, mass and energy balance, LCA, TEA, ISM, and SWOT-TOWS-QSPM to formulate a development strategy for a sago-based bioethanol industry in tropical peatlands. The findings demonstrate that applying biorefinery principles provides a foundation for achieving technical, environmental, and economic feasibility, while successful implementation depends on institutional strengthening, financing support, and integrated policy measures.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Kurniawan, Tatang http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/179217 2026-08-15T04:19:08Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Model Perencanaan Penggunaan Lahan Berbasis Jasa Ekosistem Pangan Padi dan Stok Karbon (Studi Kasus Kabupaten Sukabumi) Kurniawan, Tatang Kabupaten Sukabumi menghadapi tekanan perubahan penggunaan lahan akibat pertumbuhan penduduk, perkembangan wilayah, pembangunan infrastruktur, dan meningkatnya kebutuhan ruang terbangun. Tekanan tersebut berpotensi mengurangi lahan sawah dan hutan, sehingga menimbulkan trade-off antara kebutuhan pembangunan, penyediaan pangan padi, dan pemeliharaan stok karbon. Penelitian ini bertujuan: (1) menganalisis pola perubahan penutupan/penggunaan lahan; (2) mengidentifikasi faktor pendorong perubahan; (3) membangun model dinamik penggunaan lahan; (4) menganalisis dinamika keruangan hingga 2043; (5) menilai dampak perubahan lahan terhadap jasa ekosistem pangan padi dan stok karbon; serta (6) menyusun arahan perencanaan penggunaan lahan berbasis jasa ekosistem. Metode penelitian mengintegrasikan penginderaan jauh, Sistem Informasi Geografis, Sistem Dinamik, CLUE-S, dan InVEST. Peta penggunaan lahan 2000, 2010, dan 2020 disusun dari citra Landsat menggunakan Object-Based Image Analysis dengan Multiresolution Segmentation dan Random Forest. Faktor pendorong dianalisis dengan regresi logistik biner. Sistem Dinamik digunakan untuk memproyeksikan kebutuhan penggunaan lahan, produksi padi, kebutuhan beras, dan stok karbon pada empat skenario: BAU, moderat, optimis, dan progresif. CLUE-S mengalokasikan kebutuhan tersebut secara spasial pada grid 100 x 100 m, sedangkan InVEST mengevaluasi jasa ekosistem pangan padi dan stok karbon. Arahan akhir disusun melalui evaluasi skenario dan tumpang susun dengan pola ruang RTRW Kabupaten Sukabumi 2023-2043. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa selama 2000-2020 lahan terbangun meningkat 10.664 ha atau 47,78%, sedangkan hutan berkurang 774 ha, lahan kering 7.748 ha, perkebunan 440 ha, sawah 1.600 ha, dan lahan terbuka 102 ha. Kombinasi klasifikasi terbaik menggunakan scale 50, shape 0,1, dan compactness 0,5 dengan overall accuracy 90,55% dan Kappa 88,85%. Perubahan hutan menjadi pertanian terutama dipengaruhi jarak ke kota terdekat, sedangkan perubahan pertanian menjadi lahan terbangun terutama dipengaruhi kepadatan penduduk. Model Sistem Dinamik menunjukkan bahwa skenario progresif memberikan kinerja terbaik pada 2043: luas sawah 66.997 ha, produksi padi 983.113,98 ton, produksi beras 616.805,71 ton, kebutuhan beras 311.338,52 ton, surplus 305.467,19 ton, luas hutan/fungsi lindung 87.776 ha, dan stok karbon 17.110.157,34 ton C. Dibandingkan kondisi 2020, skenario progresif meningkatkan stok karbon 335.788,40 ton C. Model CLUE-S memiliki Kappa 88,01% dan overall accuracy 91,69%. Arahan perencanaan menempatkan perlindungan/penyediaan sawah 66.997 ha dan hutan atau kawasan berfungsi lindung 87.776 ha sebagai target spasial 2043, disertai produktivitas padi 5,80 ton/ha, indeks pertanaman 2,53, laju pertumbuhan penduduk 1,27% per tahun, dan konsumsi beras 0,0930 ton/kapita/tahun. Manfaat utama penelitian adalah menyediakan kerangka ilmiah yang menghubungkan dinamika penggunaan lahan, jasa ekosistem, dan tata ruang untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan adaptif berbasis bukti di Kabupaten Sukabumi. Kebaruan penelitian bukan terletak pada penggunaan individual atau sekadar penggabungan Sistem Dinamik, CLUE-S, dan InVEST, tetapi pada pengembangan feedback-based dynamic-spatial ecosystem-service land-use planning framework. Kerangka tersebut membentuk siklus keputusan dari faktor pendorong dan kebutuhan lahan temporal, alokasi spasial, evaluasi kinerja jasa ekosistem, respons kebijakan, hingga arahan spasial. Kinerja pangan padi dan stok karbon diperlakukan sebagai sinyal untuk mengevaluasi kombinasi kebijakan. Umpan balik yang dimaksud adalah policy/decision feedback, bukan kopling numerik dua arah otomatis antarperangkat lunak.; Sukabumi Regency is experiencing land-use pressure driven by population growth, regional development, infrastructure expansion, and increasing demand for built-up land. These pressures may reduce paddy fields and forest cover, creating trade-offs among development needs, rice-food provisioning, and carbon-stock maintenance. This study aimed to: (1) analyze land-cover/use change patterns; (2) identify the driving factors of change; (3) develop a dynamic land-use model; (4) analyze spatial dynamics up to 2043; (5) assess impacts on rice-food provisioning and carbon stock; and (6) formulate ecosystem-service-based land-use planning directions. The research integrated remote sensing, GIS, System Dynamics, CLUE-S, and InVEST. Land-use maps for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were derived from Landsat imagery using Object-Based Image Analysis with Multiresolution Segmentation and Random Forest. Binary logistic regression was used to identify land-use change drivers. System Dynamics projected land demand, rice production, rice demand, and carbon stocks under four scenarios: BAU, moderate, optimistic, and progressive. CLUE-S spatially allocated land demand on a 100 x 100 m grid, while InVEST evaluated rice-food provisioning and carbon-stock ecosystem services. The preferred scenario was then evaluated against the 2023-2043 Sukabumi spatial plan. Between 2000 and 2020, built-up land increased by 10,664 ha or 47.78%, while forest declined by 774 ha, dry land by 7,748 ha, plantations by 440 ha, paddy fields by 1,600 ha, and open land by 102 ha. The best classification configuration used scale 50, shape 0.1, and compactness 0.5, producing an overall accuracy of 90.55% and Kappa accuracy of 88.85%. Forest-to-agriculture conversion was most strongly associated with distance to the nearest town, whereas agriculture-to-built-up conversion was most strongly associated with population density. The progressive scenario provided the best 2043 performance: 66,997 ha of paddy fields, 983,113.98 tons of paddy production, 616,805.71 tons of rice production, 311,338.52 tons of rice demand, a surplus of 305,467.19 tons, 87,776 ha of forest/protection-function land, and 17,110,157.34 tons C of carbon stock. Relative to 2020, carbon stock increased by 335,788.40 tons C. CLUE-S validation yielded a Kappa coefficient of 88.01% and overall accuracy of 91.69%. The novelty does not lie in the individual use or simple coupling of System Dynamics, CLUE-S, and InVEST, but in a feedback-based dynamic-spatial ecosystem-service land-use planning framework. The framework closes the planning decision cycle from drivers and temporal land demand, through spatial allocation and ecosystem-service assessment, to policy response and spatial planning directions. Rice-food and carbon-stock performance are treated as decision signals for evaluating policy packages. The feedback is operationalized as policy/decision feedback, not as automated two-way numerical recoupling among software platforms. The planning direction sets 2043 spatial targets of 66,997 ha of protected/provided paddy fields and 87,776 ha of forest or protection-function land, combined with a rice productivity target of 5.80 tons/ha, a cropping index of 2.53, population growth of 1.27% per year, and rice consumption of 0.0930 tons/capita/year. The study provides a scientific decision-support framework linking land-use dynamics, ecosystem-service performance, and spatial planning for adaptive, evidence-based land-use governance in Sukabumi Regency.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Risna, Rosniati Apriani http://repository.ipb.ac.id/handle/123456789/179410 2026-08-15T07:12:55Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

MCDM-based Framework Integrating Forest Resilience and Javan Endemic Trees to Support Conservation and EFT in East Java Risna, Rosniati Apriani Java Island harbors exceptional plant endemism, including approximately 150 endemic tree species, yet this biodiversity faces mounting threats from forest loss, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Indonesia's Ecological Fiscal Transfer scheme (TAPE) was introduced to incentivize local governments toward improved environmental performance; however, current allocation still relies on administrative or area-based indicators rather than measurable ecological information. This study aimed to develop an integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework combining species distribution modelling, forest resilience assessment, and socio-economic considerations to support TAPE prioritization. Conducted between November 2022 and June 2025, the research comprised three sequential phases. First, distributions of 33 verified Javan endemic tree species were modelled island-wide using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) based on GBIF occurrence records, generating species richness and Habitat Representative Score (HRS) indicators. Second, forest resilience in East Java was quantified through temporal autocorrelation of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index time-series (2000–2020), resulting a Forest Resilience Index (FRI). Third, ecological indicators (species richness, HRS, FRI) were integrated with socio-economic indicators—Human Development Index, Human Impact Index, Disaster Risk Index, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and land cost—using PROMETHEE-II with equal baseline weighting. Models achieved strong predictive performance (AUC 0.85–0.95; TSS 0.62–0.77), identifying three environmental niche groups and projecting habitat contraction with upward elevational shifts under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Habitat representativeness peaked in southern East Java, while Ponorogo showed the highest species richness. Forest resilience varied substantially (FRI 0.568–0.963), with 63.2% of districts classified as moderately resilient. PROMETHEE-II integration stratified all 38 districts into three priority tiers, distinguishing areas suited for performance-based incentives, capacity-building support, and restoration-focused intervention. These findings demonstrate that combining ecological and socio-economic evidence yields a more comprehensive, transparent basis for fiscal allocation than conventional area-based approaches, offering a replicable foundation for evidence-based conservation planning within provincial Ecological Fiscal Transfer programs.

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z