Model Ekonomi Kecil Australia dengan Metode VAR

Abstract

The objective of this research is to build an Australian small economic model that use Australian Gross Domestic Product (PDB), Consumer Price Index (IHK), and the Central Bank Interest Rate (SBB) data in the period of 1991 (1) - 2013 (4). The small economic model formed in this research was the two order Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with one cointegration rank. There is a positive association between PDB with IHK and SBB with IHK and a negative association between SBB and PDB. There is only one partial equation between IHK with the lag effect of PDB and SBB. IHK partial equation can explain the influence of monetary policy by the establishment of SBB from Australian government to change IHK. The response of IHK is very small and not too significant because the Australian economic growth is very stable and the response of PDB can not be analyzed because the partial model of PDB has no effected on the lag of SBB.