APLlKASI NPV AT RISK DALAM ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL BUDIDAYA JAMUR TlRAM PUTIH DI KABUPATEN BOGOR JAWA BARAT

Abstract

The purpose of this study were to analyze white oyster mushroom farming activity in Kabupaten Bogor, to analyze financial feasibility of white oyster mushroom farming activity for high and low land in Kabupaten Bogor by NPV at Risk Method and to analyze the switching value for the changes of cost and benefit in white oyster mushroom farming activity. The data were collected from 6 farmers living in high and low land in Kabupaten Bogor. The NPV at risk model and switching value analysis were used to analyze tha data. The result of the study showed that white oyster mushroom farming activity for high and low land in Kabupaten Bogor were feasible financially. The risks like price risk, production risk in that activity have accommodated in to cash flow. Accomodationfor price risk used the inflation rate andfor production risk used estimation for failure of crop in white oyster mushroom farming activity according the farmers. Switching value was used to analyze maximum changes in cost and benefit. The maximum changes describes that the changes is tolerated. The result for switching value analysis showed that the decreasing of production of white oyster mushroom (fresh and bag log) is more sensitive than the others (decreasing of fresh white oyster mushroom price and increasing of varible input cost). This showed that production risk have greater effect on white oyster mushroom farming activity than price risk. According that situation, the farmer must improve the technology of white oyster mushroom farming activity. The application of this model gives many outputs (NPV) and risks variabilities so that it can give a much more attractive and varying recommendation especially for the investors to do the investment decision especially for white oyster mushroom farming activity.