RISIKO HARGA SAYURAN DI INDONESIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT The vegetables farmers always face the product price risk. The product price risk was indicated by price volatility. The objectives of this study are: 1) to assess the product price risk in vegetables farming activities, 2) to analyze the factors that influence vegetables product price risk. This research utilized secondary data such as the daily price and vegetable supply (period of January 2009 until March 2010). This research analyzed several commodities such as potatoes, cabbage, red pepper, shallot and tomatoes. Variance and coefficient variation are used to assess the price risk. ARCH GARCH model was used to analyze the factors that affected the price risk. The results showed that the price risk of red pepper was the highest whereas the price risk of potatoes was the lowest. The price risk of tomatoes, cabbage and shallot are between the price risk of red pepper and potatoes. The factors that affected the price risk of vegetables in the current period are the vegetables price risk of previous period, vegetable supply in the current period and previous period.