Climate risk management based on operating farming systems for rice through the use of dynamic cropping pattern

Abstract

El-Nino events can lead to decreased production of rice, due to the addition of the planting area is experiencing drought and loss yield. Early withdrawal of the rainy season could lead to the resignation of a second crop. This second crop is susceptible to drought. Therefore, the scheduling of planting taking into account the possibility of extreme climate events are contained within a planting calendar is one solution. Research preparation of the planting calendar has been started since 2007 (Las et al, 2007) by the Ministry of Agriculture. Output produced in the early years, a map of the plant which is divided into four scenarios, using historical data. On the other hand, Boer et al (2007) also researched the planting calendar with use decision and bayesian network. However, the resulting decision regarding just planting time only. Therefore, to develop a planting calendar that has been generated, the research done by adding the decision issued by measuring the utility function as an approach, in addition to overcome the problem of drought due to improper planting time. This study aimed to look for alternative cropping patterns ideal economically advantageous in terms of a combination of rice cultivation (planting time, fertilizer, irrigation, varieties) on a farm in a particular season, which gives the maximum production with minimal loss rate.