Simulation Model of Sustainable Forage Supply for Dairy Farming in Lembang Sub District West Java

Abstract

Forage supply is the core issue in dairy farming productivity in Indonesia. The restricted forage supply is mainly due to the limited farming land owened by the farmers. This research was carried out to formulate the simulation model of forage supply sustainability for daory farming in Lembang Sub district, West Java. Method of this research was collecting data from (1) desk study, (2) survey,(3) interview with the stakeholder, (4) FGD (Focuse Group Discussion). The model was built by using the system approach; need assessment, problem formulation, system identification (causal loop and inputoutput diagram) and model formulation. The model simulation software program used in this study was Powersim Studio 2005. There were four submodels built; population submodel, dairy cattle population submodel, economic submodel, and forage availability submodel. Based on the dynamic simulation, it was obtained the amount of population as 207.025 ppl in the end of year simulation (20 years), 15.392 AU for dairy cattle population, 48.722.025 litter for milk production, Rp. 157.372.140.750,00 for the revenue from milk yield, 40.484,52 ton for forage production and 165.492,73 ton for forage requirement. Policy analysis was exceeding from the model built. Sensitivity’s test was the real form of intervention from model structures. It showed how sensitive the model as the changes of output and it showed what the effect resulted. Model validation was done by statistical method; MAPE (Mean Percentage Error). The spatial analysis was done to determine the ecological suitability for forage management.