Land use change modeling for spatial use management in term of regional sustainable development (with special reference to Bandung Region).

Abstract

Land use change in global, national and local scale has direct impact. The causes and impact of the changes are different in each region and depend on factors influenced. So that, simulation is required to predict future land use change. The future land use information will be beneficial to be applied for spatial use management. The objective of the study was to build land use change model for spatial use management in term of regional sustainable development in Bandung region. The first step was spatial modeling using CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effect at small regional extent) with time frame of 20 years. The next step was sustainability analysis using well being index. The result of the two steps, then, became an input for prospective analysis workshop. The CLUE-S model used six scenarios those were combinations of demand module and spatial policy. The best scenario was scenario six, with demand module a half of existing land use change rate and spatial policy by protected area and preserving area. The result of sustainability analysis showed that Bandung regional development was not sustainable. Prospective analysis gave seven key factors i.e. population density, educational level, planning, income, land tenure, policy and development fund allocation. Based on these factors, scenario rather optimistic was chosen for sustainable spatial use management. The factor that must be drove or pushed was educational level. The implication of the scenario will give positive impact to the sustainable spatial use management. Land use change model and regional sustainability information can complement spatial regional planning.

Perubahan penggunaan lahan yang terjadi dalam skala global, nasional maupun lokal, mempunyai dampak langsung maupun tidak langsung baik secara lokal, nasional maupun global. Penyebab dan dampak perubahan ruang berbedabeda di setiap wilayah bergantung pada faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya, sehingga diperlukan suatu simulasi dan analisis. Model perubahan penggunaan lahan yang memprediksi penggunaan di masa mendatang, dapat dijadikan suatu masukan untuk kegiatan penataan ruang. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk membangun model perubahan penggunaan lahan untuk konsep penataan ruang dalam kerangka pembangunan wilayah yang berkelanjutan di wilayah Kabupaten Bandung. Tahapan penelitian adalah dengan melakukan pemodelan spasial menggunakan CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effect at small regional extent) dengan waktu simulasi 20 tahun. Selanjutnya, dilakukan perhitungan tingkat keberlanjutan dengan menggunakan Wellbeing Index. Hasil kedua tahap ini, selanjutnya dijadikan input dalam analisis prospektif dengan metode lokakarya.