Dampak guncangan structural terhadap fluktuasi ekonomimakro Indonesia: suatu kajian business cycle dari sisi permintaan

Abstract

The, major concern uf rnacroecanamic polrcy is to have a high but stable economic grawth aver time, Economists seek to find the causes of aggregate m a m k fiuduation known as shocks. Within the framwurk of modern business cy&, this march aims to emmine the empirical facts uf Indonesian business cycles, to asses the dynamics d m&croemnomic variables under a particuiar shuck and to analyze the impact of some shocks on Indonesian macroacofiomic fluchation, Hodrick-Pr- filter is used to decompose trend ernd cyCliCEll mrnp~nsnts in the reduced-form univariate modeis. A variant of MunddCFlsming theory is used to construct a model of economic va&bIe relationship. This model rertationship than used to identify all economic restrictions in the empirical muddling. StruduraC Vector Auforegression (S-VAR) is used to dwhp the economstric model and the Mwimum Likelihood mthd to estimate the modd. An analysis of the Impulse Response Function and Foremst Emr VarZance Dc~compusitbn based on the estimated mod& shows that Indonen businem q c b s am congruent with a Keynesian interpretatfan of economic Ructueitions, and the structural shocks had h n correctly )rMed. So, the Indonesian rnamewnamic management tend to follow Keynesian economic model rather then Monetaris4 model. The resuits of the rosearch shaw thai output and exchange rate (spending hiam) shocks are the mast important m from tb demand side, which can explain Gross Domestic Product (GDP) vathbiiity. The spending balance shuck can significanfiy explain almost all variability of Indonesian macroecanornic va&bles. Fiscal shock can nu4 exptain fiucturation of GDP, thus budget def~ciits not a sign-nt obstacle for the economic grawth particularly after presence uf floating IndomsiEln exchange rate, Mmry demand shock cannot directly expiain the variability of GDP and dame& interest rate, but it GDP trough the exchange rate. Interestingly, monetary poltcy can nut explain the variability of GDP and axchange rate in the sho~as wdi as long run, thus indicafing the mutrali of monetary policy both In the short and long run. Same major impdicatbs appear from the msea~hm suits, If the Indonesian guwmmcsnt wishes to push its acanomk grawth, this can b done by means of output and exchange rate shocks. In the short as well as kng run, bath shocks is essential far the smornic stabiikatiun. To increase the ~~s uf fiscerl and mangtafy paticies (shacks), appropriate-synchranked and caordinatad poiicies b a must, Munary and fi-1 authuritias should have right and independent coardination in the sense that the coordination shoutd not be attached to me of twa authoriti.

The major concern of macroeconomic policy is to have a high but stable economic growth over time. Economists seek to find the causes of aggregate economic fluctuation known as shocks. Within the framework of modem business cycle, this research aims to examine the empirical facts of Indonesian business cycle, to asses the dynamic of macroeconomic variables under a particular shock and to analyze the impact of some shocks on Indonesian macroeconomic fluctuation.