The Role of System Dynamic in Future City Landscape Development Planning (Case: Bogor Municipality)

Abstract

In a complete sense, city development are dynamic and multi-sector phenomena, as consequences of population and economic growth development. In the spatial sense, such city developments were carried on at the expense of greenery open space. In such interaction, open space availability was assumed as stock-and-flow phenomena. A case study in Bogor Municipality was carried out to study how such dynamic phenomena can be directed toward better open space availability. There were three suh causal loops (sub model) developed in analysis i.e. population growth, economic growth (with regional domestic product) and open soace availability (with open space availability and temperature humidity index). Using the three sub models, system dynamic (sysdyn) analysis was run in three scenarios i.e. progressive, sustainable and conservative scenarios. The allalysis showed that sustair,able scenario with population growth rate of 0.2% and regional domestic product growth of 0.5% gives open space area growth of 0.2% per year. Due to pressures of popUlation and economic growth, two other scenarios could not give additional open space area. Combined with geographic information system (GIS), such additional open space areas were plotted spatially. Keywords: city landscape development, green open space (GOS), landscape management, landscape planning policy, stock-and-flow phenomena, system dynamic,.