Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Rempah-Rempah Indonesia

Abstract

DANDI RIFQI CAESARDO. Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Daya Saing Ekspor Rempah-Rempah Indonesia. Dibimbing oleh SUHENDI dan SITI JAHROH. Ekspor rempah-rempah memiliki peran strategis dalam perekonomian nasional sekaligus membuka peluang bisnis global, namun kinerjanya masih tertinggal dibanding negara pesaing meskipun permintaan meningkat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing ekspor rempah Indonesia, pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap daya saing tersebut, serta merumuskan rekomendasi strategis bagi eksportir. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder kuartalan periode 2015-2024 yang mencakup RCA, Produk Domestik Bruto, inflasi, suku bunga, dan kurs. Daya saing diukur dengan pendekatan Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan dianalisis menggunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil menunjukkan daya saing rempah Indonesia tergolong kuat (RCA > 1), meskipun menurun selama periode observasi. Produk Domestik Bruto dan suku bunga berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah berbeda pada jangka pendek dan panjang. Kurs berpengaruh positif dalam jangka panjang, sementara inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan pada jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Rekomendasi strategis bagi eksportir meliputi respons adaptif terhadap dinamika makroekonomi melalui diversifikasi pasar, peningkatan efisiensi biaya, serta optimalisasi pembiayaan.

DANDI RIFQI CAESARDO. The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Competitiveness of Indonesian Spice Exports. Supervised by SUHENDI and SITI JAHROH. Spice exports played a strategic role in the national economy and created global business opportunities, but their performance still lagged behind competitors despite rising demand. This study aimed to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian spice exports, examine the influence of macroeconomic variables on that competitiveness, and formulate strategic recommendations for exporters. The research employed quarterly secondary data for the 2015-2024 period covering RCA, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Competitiveness was measured using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) approach and analyzed with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results indicated that Indonesian spice exports remained competitive (RCA > 1) although declining over the observation period. GDP and interest rates showed significant effects with different directions in the short and long run. The exchange rate had a positive long-run effect, while inflation was not significant in either horizon. Strategic recommendations for exporters included adaptive responses to macroeconomic dynamics through market diversification, cost-efficiency improvements, and optimized financing.