Estimasi Nilai Wajar Saham PT Pertamina International Shipping (PIS) Menjelang Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham (IPO)

Abstract

PT Pertamina International Shipping (PIS) merupakan salah satu entitas perkapalan nasional yang sedang merencanakan penawaran umum perdana saham (IPO). Kondisi tersebut menjadi latar belakang dilaksanakannya penelitian ini untuk menganalisis estimasi nilai wajar saham PIS dengan menggunakan tiga pendekatan, yaitu Discounted Cash Flow to the Firm (DCF-FCFF), Discounted Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE), dan valuasi relatif berbasis Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), dengan tujuan memberikan rekomendasi strategis bagi perusahaan, investor, regulator, dan peneliti selanjutnya dalam rangka penentuan nilai wajar saham pada saat IPO. Metode penelitian meliputi analisis data keuangan historis, proyeksi arus kas, dan perbandingan dengan perusahaan sejenis. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa estimasi nilai wajar saham PIS berdasarkan pendekatan DCF-FCFF adalah Rp1.531 per lembar, berdasarkan DCF-FCFE sebesar Rp1.566 per lembar, dan berdasarkan valuasi relatif sebesar Rp976 per lembar. Melalui proses rekonsiliasi dengan bobot 40% untuk DCF-FCFF, 40% untuk DCF-FCFE, dan 20% untuk valuasi relatif, diperoleh estimasi nilai wajar rata-rata tertimbang sebesar Rp1.434 per lembar. Faktor-faktor kunci yang diidentifikasi meliputi keterbukaan informasi publik, strategi penawaran yang realistis, dan keterlibatan investor institusional. Bagi investor, hasil valuasi ini dapat menjadi acuan dalam menilai kewajaran harga IPO dengan mempertimbangkan asumsi proyeksi dan kondisi eksternal, sedangkan bagi regulator, diperlukan kebijakan batas persentase saham IPO untuk menjaga keseimbangan pasar dan stabilitas harga. Berdasarkan estimasi tersebut, IPO PIS berpotensi menghimpun dana hingga Rp21 triliun. Implikasi penelitian ini menegaskan bahwa keberhasilan IPO PIS dipengaruhi oleh strategi komunikasi yang efektif, pengelolaan ekspektasi pasar, dan dukungan kebijakan yang memadai, serta membuka peluang bagi penelitian selanjutnya untuk mengembangkan model valuasi yang lebih adaptif berbasis skenario dan variabel Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG).

PT Pertamina International Shipping (PIS) is one of the national shipping entities currently planning an Initial Public Offering (IPO). This condition serves as the background for this study, which aims to analyze the fair value estimation of PIS shares using three approaches, namely the Discounted Cash Flow to the Firm (DCF-FCFF), Discounted Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE), and relative valuation based on the Price to Earnings Ratio (PER), with the objective of providing strategic recommendations for the company, investors, regulators, and future researchers in determining the fair value of shares during the IPO process. The research method involves the analysis of historical financial data, cash flow projections, and comparisons with peer companies. The results indicate that the estimated fair value of PIS shares using the DCF-FCFF approach is IDR 1,531 per share, using the DCF-FCFE approach is IDR 1,566 per share, and using the relative valuation approach is IDR 976 per share. Through a reconciliation process with a weighting of 40% for DCF-FCFF, 40% for DCF-FCFE, and 20% for relative valuation, the weighted average fair value estimate is IDR 1,434 per share. Key factors identified include public information transparency, realistic offering strategies, and the involvement of institutional investors. For investors, the valuation results can serve as a reference in assessing the fairness of the IPO price by considering cash flow projection assumptions and external conditions, while for regulators, policies on IPO share percentage limits are needed to maintain market balance and price stability. Based on these estimates, PIS’s IPO has the potential to raise up to IDR 21 trillion. The implications of this research emphasize that the success of PIS’s IPO is influenced by effective communication strategies, market expectation management, and adequate policy support, while also opening opportunities for future research to develop more adaptive valuation models based on scenarios and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) variables.