Analisis Determinan Kebijakan Dividen Perusahaan Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama Pandemi Covid-19

Abstract

Kebijakan dividen merupakan salah satu keputusan penting dalam manajemen keuangan perusahaan karena mencerminkan kondisi kinerja, stabilitas, serta kepercayaan manajemen terhadap prospek usaha di masa depan. Namun, sejak munculnya pandemi Covid-19, perusahaan menghadapi tekanan finansial yang signifikan akibat penurunan pendapatan, ketidakpastian pasar, dan gangguan operasional. Tekanan tersebut menyebabkan banyak perusahaan harus meninjau ulang kebijakan pembagian dividen demi menjaga likuiditas dan kesinambungan usaha. Fenomena ini menimbulkan pertanyaan penting mengenai bagaimana dinamika kebijakan dividen berubah selama pandemi, serta faktor-faktor apa saja yang menentukan besarnya dividen yang dibagikan perusahaan di tengah krisis global tersebut. Berdasarkan latar belakang tersebut, tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) menganalisis dinamika kebijakan dividen perusahaan tercatat di BEI sebelum dan selama pandemi Covid-19; (2) menganalisis determinan yang memengaruhi kebijakan dividen perusahaan tercatat di BEI. Objek penelitian pada penelitian ini adalah 122 perusahaan non-keuangan yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada periode tahun 2016-2023. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu metode data panel statis dan dinamis. Variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah dividen tunai, sedangkan variabel independen meliputi profitabilitas, peluang pertumbuhan perusahaan, likuiditas dan variabel dummy Covid-19. Untuk model data panel dinamis ditambahkan variabel berupa dividen tahun sebelumnya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terjadi penurunan rata-rata perusahaan pembayar dividen selama pandemi, dari rata-rata 79% sebelum pandemi menjadi 71% selama pandemi. Namun, tidak semua sektor mengalami dampak negatif. Sektor kesehatan dan bahan baku justru menunjukkan peningkatan jumlah dan besaran dividen yang dibayarkan selama pandemi. Hasil analisis regresi data panel statis menunjukkan bahwa variabel Covid-19 berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap kebijakan dividen, sedangkan profitabilitas berpengaruh positif signifikan. Variabel likuiditas dan pertumbuhan perusahaan tidak berpengaruh terhadap kebijakan dividen. Nilai R-squared pada model ini hanya sebesar 4%, mengindikasikan kemampuan jelaskan model masih rendah. Hasil analisis regresi data panel dinamis menunjukkan bahwa variabel profitabilitas, dan dividen tahun sebelumnya berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kebijakan dividen tunai. Variabel lainnya seperti, pandemi Covid-19, peluang pertumbuhan dan likuiditas perusahaan tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan dengan kinerja keuangan yang solid dan konsisten cenderung mempertahankan atau bahkan meningkatkan pembayaran dividen, meskipun dalam kondisi krisis.

Dividend policy is one of the key decisions in corporate financial management as it reflects the company’s performance, stability, and management’s confidence in future business prospects. However, since the onset of the COVID- 19 pandemic, companies have faced significant financial pressures due to declining revenues, market uncertainty, and operational disruptions. These pressures have forced many firms to review their dividend distribution policies in order to maintain liquidity and ensure business continuity. This phenomenon raises important questions about how dividend policy dynamics have changed during the pandemic and what factors determine the amount of dividends distributed by companies amid the global crisis. Based on this background, the objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze the dynamics of dividend policy of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (2) to analyze the determinants that influence the dividend policy of companies listed on the IDX. The research object comprises 122 non-financial companies listed on the IDX during the period 2016–2023. The analytical methods used are static and dynamic panel data models. The dependent variable in this study is cash dividends, while the independent variables include profitability, growth opportunities, liquidity, and a COVID-19 dummy variable. For the dynamic panel data model, an additional variable—previous year’s dividends—is included. The results show that the average proportion of dividend-paying companies declined during the pandemic, from an average of 79% before the pandemic to 71% during the pandemic. However, not all sectors experienced negative impacts. The healthcare and basic materials sectors even recorded an increase in both the number and amount of dividends paid during the pandemic. The results of the static panel data regression analysis indicate that the COVID-19 variable has a significant negative effect on dividend policy, while profitability has a significant positive effect. Liquidity and company growth variables show no significant effect on dividend policy. The R-squared value for this model is only 4%, indicating that the model’s explanatory power is still low. The dynamic panel data regression analysis shows that profitability and previous year’s dividends have significant effects on cash dividend policy. Other variables—such as the COVID-19 pandemic, growth opportunities, and company liquidity—do not have significant effects. These findings suggest that companies with solid and consistent financial performance tend to maintain or even increase dividend payments, even during crisis conditions.