Daya Saing dan Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Kopi ke Pasar Cina

Abstract

Ekspor adalah indikator utama kekuatan ekonomi suatu negara. Di Indonesia, sektor pertanian, khususnya kopi, memainkan peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekspor. Sebagai salah satu produsen kopi terbesar di dunia, Indonesia telah meningkatkan produksi dan nilai ekspor kopi secara signifikan. Pasar kopi global yang terus berkembang, terutama di Cina, menghadirkan peluang yang menjanjikan. Tren penurunan ekspor Vietnam selaku eskportir kopi terbesar di Cina turut menciptakan celah pasar yang dapat dimanfaatkan Indonesia guna memperkuat daya saingnya. Meski demikian, Indonesia tetap menghadapi persaingan dengan negara-negara pengekspor lainnya dalam memanfaatkan peluang di pasar Cina. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis daya saing dan kinerja ekspor kopi Indonesia di pasar Cina, mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kopi ke pasar Cina serta menganalisis potensi perdagangan kopi Indonesia dan negara pesaingnya di pasar Cina. Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Constan Market Share (CMS), gravity model dan rasio potensi perdagangan digunakan untuk analisis. Variabel-variabel yang dipertimbangkan dalam penelitian ini meliputi GDP riil per kapita eskportir, GDP riil per kapita Cina, jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar riil, dan harga ekspor. Berdasarkan analisis EPD, hasilnya menunjukkan perubahan penting dalam daya saing kopi Indonesia selama dua periode. Pada periode pertama, Indonesia berada pada posisi retreat, sementara pada periode kedua, Indonesia naik ke posisi rising star. Pergeseran ini sejalan dengan penurunan ekspor kopi Vietnam, yang dulunya merupakan pesaing utama. Berdasarkan analisis CMS selama dua periode, kinerja ekspor kopi Indonesia ke pasar Cina didominasi oleh kontribusi pertumbuhan standar, yang mencerminkan bahwa peningkatan ekspor lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan permintaan pasar Cina, bukan karena keunggulan spesifik dari Indonesia. Meskipun pada periode pertama efek komposisi dan distribusi masih memberikan kontribusi positif, pada periode berikutnya keduanya justru bernilai negatif. Selain itu, daya saing Indonesia secara konsisten negatif di kedua periode, yang menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia menghadapi persaingan yang ketat di pasar Cina. Selain itu, analisis gravity model menunjukkan bahwa GDP riil negara eksportir dan Cina mempengaruhi ekspor kopi ke Cina, sementara faktor-faktor seperti jarak ekonomi, nilai tukar riil, dan harga ekspor tidak memiliki dampak yang signifikan. Ditemukan juga Indonesia dan negara pesaingnya memiliki potensi untuk terus meningkatkan perdagangannya di Cina. Hal ini disebabkan perdagangan kopi Indonesia dan negara pesaingnya dengan Cina masih mengalami under trade.

Exports are a key indicator of a country's economic strength. In Indonesia, the agricultural sector, particularly coffee, plays an important role in driving export growth. As one of the world's largest coffee producers, Indonesia has significantly increased coffee production and export value. The growing global coffee market, especially in China, presents promising opportunities. The declining export trend of Vietnam as the largest coffee exporter in China also creates a market gap that Indonesia can utilize to strengthen its competitiveness. However, Indonesia still faces competition from other exporting countries in capitalizing on opportunities in the Chinese market. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and performance of Indonesian coffee exports in the Chinese market, identify factors affecting coffee exports to the Chinese market, and assess the trade potential of Indonesian coffee and its competitors in the Chinese market. Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Constant Market Share (CMS), gravity model, and trade potential ratio were used for the analysis. The variables considered in this study include real GDP per capita of exporters, real GDP per capita of China, economic distance, real exchange rate, and export price. Based on the EPD analysis, the results show significant changes in Indonesian coffee competitiveness over two periods. In the first period, Indonesia was in a retreating position, while in the second period, Indonesia rose to a rising star position. This shift aligns with the decline in coffee exports from Vietnam, which was once a major competitor. Based on the CMS analysis over the two periods, the performance of Indonesian coffee exports to the Chinese market was dominated by standard growth contributions, reflecting that export increases were influenced more by growing Chinese market demand, rather than by Indonesia's specific advantages. Although the composition and distribution effects in the first period still contributed positively, both were negative in the subsequent period. Furthermore, Indonesia's competitiveness was consistently negative across both periods, indicating that Indonesia faces intense competition in the Chinese market. Moreover, the gravity model analysis shows that the real GDP of exporting countries and China influences coffee exports to China. In contrast, economic distance, the real exchange rate, and export prices have no significant impact. It was also found that Indonesia and its competitors have the potential to continue increasing their trade with China. This is because the coffee trade between Indonesia and its competitors, including China, is still experiencing undertrade.