Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Inefisiensi Ekspor Karet Alam Indonesia ke Negara Tujuan

Abstract

Karet alam (HS 4001) merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis subsektor perkebunan yang berperan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, meskipun tren nilai ekspor periode 2004–2023 cenderung menurun. Salah satu penyebab utamanya adalah inefisiensi ekspor, yang mencerminkan hambatan perdagangan dan rasio ekspor aktual dengan ekspor potensialnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis efisiensi ekspor karet alam Indonesia dan mengidentifikasi determinan inefisiensi. Metode yang digunakan adalah Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model dengan data panel 34 negara mitra dagang utama periode 2013–2022. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan adanya variasi efisiensi yang signifikan antar kawasan, dengan Asia mencatat rata-rata efisiensi tertinggi (74,36%) dan Australia terendah (10,32%). Efisiensi dipengaruhi oleh faktor struktural seperti jarak ekonomi, perjanjian dagang, serta karakteristik permintaan pasar. Interaksi Pertumbuhan Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia dan negara mitra berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan jarak ekonomi berpengaruh negatif. Dalam model inefisiensi, keseluruhan faktor inefisiensi di dalam model berpengaruh signifikan seperti nilai tukar riil, trade openness, dummy landlocked, dan trade freedom index, labor freedom index dan dummy global crisis. Berdasarkan kondisi tersebut, diperlukannya optimalisasi efisiensi ekspor karet alam Indonesia berupa penguatan kerja sama dagang melalui percepatan ratifikasi perjanjian perdagangan dan perluasan akses pasar ke negara-negara mitra strategis.

Natural rubber (HS 4001) is a strategic commodity within the plantation sub-sector that plays a vital role in Indonesia's economy, despite a declining trend in export value from 2004 to 2023. One of the main contributing factors to this decline is export inefficiency, which reflects trade barriers and the gap between actual and potential export volumes. This study aims to analyze the export efficiency of Indonesian natural rubber and identify the determinants of its inefficiency. The Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) was employed using panel data covering 34 major trading partner countries over the 2013–2022 period. The estimation results reveal substantial regional variation in export efficiency, with Asia recording the highest average efficiency (74.36%) and Australia the lowest (10.32%). Export efficiency is influenced by structural factors such as economic distance, trade agreements, and market demand characteristics. The interaction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between Indonesia and its trading partners has a significant positive effect on export volumes, while economic distance exerts a negative effect. In the inefficiency model, all included factors significantly affect inefficiency, including the real exchange rate, trade openness, landlocked dummy, trade freedom index, labor freedom index, and global crisis dummy. These findings indicate the need to optimize the efficiency of Indonesia’s natural rubber exports through strengthened trade cooperation, accelerated ratification of trade agreements, and expanded market access to strategic partner countries