Model Prediksi Harga Komoditas Cabai Merah Besar dan Keriting dengan Metode Long Short Term Memory
Abstract
Data Badan Pusat Statistik menandai tingginya tingkat produksi dan
konsumsi cabai merah per kapita pada beberapa provinsi di Indonesia. Berdasarkan
monitor Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis dari Mei 2018 hingga Mei 2021
harga cabai merah mengalami fluktuasi di 34 provinsi, salah satunya yaitu provinsi
Jawa Barat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun pemodelan prediksi harga
cabai merah besar dan keriting di provinsi Jawa Barat dengan metode Long Short
Term Memory (LSTM). Model prediksi harga komoditas cabai merah besar dan
keriting menggunakan LSTM telah berhasil dibentuk dan dinilai cukup
representatif untuk memprediksi harga di pasar tradisional dan pasar modern
provinsi Jawa Barat. Hasil model prediksi terbaik untuk harga cabai merah besar
dan keriting di pasar tradisional diperoleh nilai RMSE terkecil pada data uji sebesar
2,57% dan 2,07%. Sedangkan, hasil model prediksi harga terbaik di pasar modern
diperoleh nilai RMSE terkecil pada data uji sebesar 2,11% dan 2,17%. Berdasarkan
nilai RMSE yang diperoleh, pembentukan model menggunakan LSTM sudah lebih
baik dari metode penelitian sebelumnya dan menunjukan bahwa variasi nilai yang
dihasilkan pada model mendekati variasi nilai aktualnya. Data from the Central Statistics Agency indicates the high level of
production and consumption of red chili per capita in several provinces in
Indonesia. Based on the monitoring of the Strategic Food Price Information Center
from May 2018 to May 2021 the price of red chili fluctuated in 34 provinces, one
of which was West Java province. The quantity of chili supply and the amount of
demand imbalance needed by consumers causes price fluctuated. This study aims
to build a predictive modeling of the price of large and curly red chilies in West
Java Province using the Long Short Term Memory method. The red chili price
prediction model using LSTM has been successfully formed and is considered
representative enough to predict prices in traditional markets and modern markets
in West Java Province. The best prediction model for the price of large and curly
red chilies in traditional markets obtained the smallest RMSE values on the test
data of 2.57% and 2.07%, respectively. Meanwhile, the best price prediction model
in the modern market obtained the smallest RMSE values on the test data of 2.11%
and 2.17%, respectively. Based on the RMSE value obtained, the model is better
than the previous research method and shows that the variation in the value
produced by a model is close to the variation in the actual value.
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