| dc.description.abstract | The aims of this research were: 1) to know management of risk, 2) to analyze the level of risk and 3) to know the expected value in Sunan Kudus Farm (SKF). The Methodology of this research is case study with: 1) descriptive design by qualitative analysis to know the risk management of SKF and 2) exploration design by: a) analysis of risk and b) analysis of risk decision using decision tree. Management of production risk not well – managed and marketing risk well – managed. The result of analysis of risk showed that SKF would get the risk amount of Rp 47.629.868,52 (standard deviation) or 1,3 (coeficient variation) higher than the mean of earning (Rp 36.747.387,92) and SKF would get the lowest earning amount Rp -58.512.349,12. The result of risk decision analysis showed that the expected value in Lebaran period (high demand) are Rp 128.969.580,- if SKF increased the population of broiler and Rp 107.474.650,- if SKF did not do that; the expected value in new period of school (low demand) are Rp 14.368.120,- if SKF decreased the population and Rp 17.960.150,- if SKF did not do that. The conclussion of this research suggest SKF should increase the population of broiler in Lebaran period and do not decrease them in new period of school for the next production period. | en |
